Jose Fernandez (12-6, 2.81 ERA), seeking his 200th strikeout of the season, takes the mound for the Miami Marlins (62-58) as they meet Dan Straily (8-6, 3.75 ERA) and the Cincinnati Reds (50-69) in the last of a four-game series at the Great American Ball Park. The Reds won the last game 3-2, and Cincinnati leads the series 2-1. The game gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, Aug. 18 and will air on FSOH and FSFL.
In his most recent outing, Straily pitched 5.1 innings, allowing two runs and striking out six in an 11-5 victory over the Brewers. Jay Bruce (.254, 65 Rs, 27 HRs, 86 RBIs, 4 SBs) went 1 for 5 yesterday with one RBI. The Marlins were unsuccessful against the Giants 8-7 the last time Fernandez pitched. He went 6.0 innings, giving up one run, striking out six and walking two. Giancarlo Stanton (.244, 52 Rs, 25 HRs, 70 RBIs) has been doing well offensively for the Marlins, going 3 for 5 yesterday with one run, one home run, and three RBIs.
Cincinnati is a +153 underdog in this game, and the Over/Under (O/U) is seven runs. The Reds have a losing record of 32-63 when playing as the underdog and an overall money line of -662. They have been a terror on the base paths, ranking second in all of baseball with 107 steals.
Moving on to the opposing team, the Marlins come into this game with a win percentage of .517 when playing as the favorite (30-28) and an overall money line of +54. They sport the fifth-ranked offense in the NL, averaging four runs per game. Miami is the top hitting team in the NL with an average of 9.4 hits per contest. The Marlins average just 7.6 strikeouts per game, one of the lowest marks in the NL. Shifting to the pitching staff, they average just 8.4 hits allowed per game, fourth-best in the NL. They also have some of the most overpowering arms in the NL with an average of 8.3 strikeouts per road game.
The Marlins have gotten the better of the Reds in head-to-head matchups this season, going 4-2. The Reds will take on a right-hander (Fernandez) in this game and have a 42-52 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. Taking the hill against the Marlins will be the right-hander Straily. They sport a 41-50 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner - MIA, O/U - Over
In their last game, the Marlins lost by a margin of one run. The Reds are 17-23 in one-run games. The Marlins have a 16-15 record in close games.
The Reds are coming off of a hot pitching game where they recorded 10 strikeouts. The Marlins have a record of 13-16 when they are struck out that many times or more.
It looks like the Reds have a slight leg up on the Marlins, as the Reds have won their last two games while the Marlins have lost their last two.
When they outhit their opponents, the Marlins are 51-14. The Reds have a 37-10 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 21st, Miami sits near the bottom of the league in runs, scoring 512 this season. Cincinnati ranks in the bottom half at 19th with 523.
Cincinnati and Miami both rank near the bottom of the league in walks. Cincinnati sits at 26th with 333 this season and Miami ranks 21st with 343.
The Reds are 37-39 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Marlins are 44-29 when they hit at least one homer.