Kevin Gausman (3-10, 4.04 ERA) and the Baltimore Orioles (66-53) go up against Joe Musgrove (1-0, 1.47 ERA) and the Houston Astros (61-59) in the first of a four-game series at Camden Yards. The game gets underway at 7:05 p.m. ET on Thursday, Aug. 18 and will air on RTSW and MAS2.
In his most recent outing, Gausman pitched 4.0 innings, allowing two runs, striking out nine and walking six in a 6-2 loss to the Giants. The Astros were victorious over the Blue Jays 5-3 the last time Musgrove pitched. He went 7.0 innings, allowing two runs, striking out seven and walking one. Jose Altuve (.364, 86 Rs, 19 HRs, 75 RBIs, 26 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one RBI.
Baltimore is a -129 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is eight runs. The Orioles have a winning record of 44-21 when playing as the favorite and an overall money line of +1,266. The Orioles come into the game with the AL's fifth-ranked home scoring offense, averaging 5.0 runs per game in their own ballpark. The Orioles are a superb hitting team with 9.0 hits per game, one of the highest marks in the AL.
Moving on to the away team, the Astros come into this game with a win percentage of .515 when playing as the underdog (17-16) and an overall money line of -1,248. Over the past 10 matchups, the team is 4-6 SU and has played poorly as the underdog with a 1-3 record. The Astros average 3.6 walks per game, making them one of the most disciplined teams in the AL. Houston's pitching staff has allowed an average of 5.4 runs per game during the last 10 games, higher than their season average of 4.1. They also have some of the most overpowering arms in the AL with an average of 8.7 strikeouts per game.
So far this season, the Astros are 3-0 against the Orioles. This game will feature Musgrove (RHP) on the mound against the Orioles, who have a 49-36 record when they take on a right-handed starter. The right-handed Gausman will take the mound against the Astros, who have a 43-38 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner - HOU, O/U - Over
Houston has won 56% (30-24) of its games when leading after seven innings. However, Baltimore has won 61% (31-20) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Astros managed to give up four walks in their last game. They'll have to pick it up against the Orioles who are heading in with a 24-17 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they outhit their opponents, the Orioles are 44-9. The Astros have a 47-5 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 18th, Houston sits in the bottom half of the league in runs, scoring 532 this season. Baltimore ranks in the top 10 with 553.
Ranking 20th, Baltimore is in the bottom half of the league in walks, notching 344 this season. Houston ranks in the top five with 426.
When the Orioles hit at least one home run, they are 54-33, well-matched with the Astros who are 52-34 when hitting one or more homers.