David Phelps (5-6, 2.40 ERA) gets the start for the Miami Marlins (61-56) as they go up against Brandon Finnegan (7-8, 4.45 ERA) and the Cincinnati Reds (48-68) in the first of a four-game series at the Great American Ball Park. The game gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET on Monday, Aug. 15 and will air on FSOH and FSFL.
In his last start, Finnegan pitched 6.0 innings, giving up three runs, striking out five and walking six in a 7-4 victory over the Cardinals. Joey Votto (.303, 72 Rs, 19 HRs, 62 RBIs, 7 SBs) continued his strong season yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one run, one home run, and three RBIs. The Marlins were unsuccessful the last time Phelps pitched. He had a good outing, pitching 5.0 innings, allowing one run, striking out five and walking three in a 1-0 loss to the Giants. Giancarlo Stanton (.244, 52 Rs, 25 HRs, 70 RBIs) has been hitting the ball well for the Marlins, going 3 for 5 yesterday with one run, one home run, and three RBIs.
Cincinnati, a +110 underdog, will look to capitalize at home against Miami. The teams combine to set the Over/Under (O/U) at nine runs. The Reds have a losing record of 32-61 when playing as the underdog and an overall money line of -659. The Reds are a nightmare on the bases for opponents with 106 steals, one of the highest totals in baseball. Cincinnati's pitching staff has put it all together in the past 10 games. Its average runs allowed per game dropped to 3.7 during that span, compared to its 5.4 season average.
Switching to the opposing dugout, the Marlins come into this game with a win percentage of .509 when playing as the favorite (29-28) and an overall money line of +18. The top hitting team in the NL are the Marlins, who average 9.4 hits per game. The Marlins average just 7.6 strikeouts per game, one of the lowest marks in the NL. Shifting to the pitching staff, they average just 8.4 hits allowed per game, fifth-best in the NL. The Miami pitching staff has been an intimidating group on the road this year, averaging 8.2 strikeouts per game.
The previous three games have all gone Miami's way. This game will feature Phelps (RHP) on the mound against the Reds, who have a 40-50 record when they take on a right-handed starter. The left-handed Finnegan will take the mound against the Marlins. Against lefty starters this season, they've racked up an impressive 19-8 record.
Predictions: SU Winner - MIA, O/U - Over
The Marlins won their last game by a one-run margin. In games decided by one run, the Reds are 16-23. The Marlins are 16-14 in close games this season.
The Reds managed to give up five walks in their last game. They'll have to pick it up against the Marlins who are coming in with a 14-7 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Reds are 8-53. The Marlins have an 8-37 record when opponents outhit them.
Cincinnati and Miami both rank near the bottom of the league in home runs. Cincinnati sits at 21st with 126 home runs this season and Miami ranks 28th with 96.
Ranking first in hits, Miami has earned 9.43 per game this season. Cincinnati ranks 11th with 8.30 hits.
Ranking 23rd, Cincinnati is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.711). Miami ranks in the top half at 14th with an OPS of .740.
The Marlins are 26-34 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Reds are 34-56 when they allow at least one homer.