Jacob deGrom (7-5, 2.35 ERA) takes the hill for the New York Mets (57-58) as they square off against Jarred Cosart (0-1, 5.79 ERA) and the San Diego Padres (50-65) in the second of a three-game series at Citi Field. The Padres won the last game 8-6, and San Diego leads the series 1-0. Action begins at 7:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, Aug. 13 and can be seen on WPIX and FSSD.
deGrom pitched 6.2 innings in his most recent start, surrendering one run, striking out three and walking two in a 3-1 win over the Tigers. Yoenis Cespedes (.289, 49 Rs, 22 HRs, 59 RBIs, 2 SBs) went 1 for 5 yesterday. Cosart went 5.0 innings, surrendering five runs and striking out five in a 6-5 defeat to the Phillies in his last outing.
This one isn't expected to be close when New York, a substantial -205 favorite, takes on San Diego. The matchup has an estimated Over/Under (O/U) of seven runs. The Mets have an overall money line of -1,658 and a record as the favorite of 42-38. New York's pitching staff has been doing poorly against opposing offenses during the last 10 games, allowing an average of 4.7 runs per game, well above its season average of 3.7. The Mets are the fifth-best team in the NL at limiting hits during home games, allowing only 8.2 hits per game to their opponents this season. Opponents have consistently been struck out by the Mets, who rank fifth in the NL in strikeouts per game with 8.5.
As for their opponent, in contrast to an encouraging overall money line (+240), San Diego has an unimpressive 38-58 record when playing as the underdog. The Padres are an excellent base stealing team with 99 stolen bases, ranking third in the MLB.
The Padres lead the season series, 3-2. The Mets have a 44-42 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when Cosart takes the mound. deGrom (RHP) will be on the hill against the Padres, who have a 35-52 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - NYM, O/U - Over
San Diego has won 44% (21-27) of its games when leading after seven innings. However, New York has won 49% (20-21) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Padres are coming off of a weak pitching game where they recorded six strikeouts. The Mets have a record of 14-16 when opponents' pitchers have six strikeouts or less.
When they outhit their opponents, the Mets are 36-11. The Padres have a 38-9 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 29th in runs, New York has earned 424 this season. San Diego ranks 16th with 512 runs.
Ranking 24th, San Diego is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 325 this season. New York ranks in the top half with 345.
When the Mets hit at least one home run, they are 49-30. When the Padres hit at least one homer, they have a 42-34 record.