Jimmy Nelson (6-11, 4.02 ERA) and the Milwaukee Brewers (51-62) meet Homer Bailey (1-1, 7.27 ERA) and the Cincinnati Reds (46-67) in the first of a three-game division series at Miller Park. The game starts at 8:10 p.m. ET on Friday, Aug. 12 and will air on FSWI and FSOH.
In his last start, Nelson pitched 4.1 innings, giving up seven runs (one unearned), striking out four and walking three in a 9-3 loss to the Diamondbacks. Ryan Braun (.325, 56 Rs, 19 HRs, 58 RBIs, 13 SBs) played well again yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one RBI. The Reds were also unsuccessful the last time Bailey pitched. He struggled, going 3.0 innings, allowing five runs, striking out four and walking one in a 5-3 loss to the Pirates. Adam Duvall (.240, 61 Rs, 26 HRs, 74 RBIs, 4 SBs) went 1 for 3 Wednesday.
Milwaukee is a -123 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at eight runs. The Brewers are 18-15 as the favorite and have an overall money line of -438. They have a SU record of 16-23 against teams in their division and a 3-3 record when they were the favorite in those games. The Brewers are a nightmare on the bases for opponents with an MLB-high 123 steals.
Moving on to the away team, the Reds come into this game with a weak win percentage of .330 when playing as the underdog (30-61) and an overall money line of -869. Against teams in their division, they are 18-28 SU and have played poorly as the underdog with a 15-26 record. Cincinnati is a terror on the base paths, ranking second in the MLB with 102 stolen bases. The last 10 games have really brought the best out of the Cincinnati pitchers. They've allowed 3.5 runs per game during that span, which is lower than their season average of 5.5.
This game will feature Bailey (RHP) on the mound against the Brewers, who have a 30-48 record when they take on a right-handed starter. The right-handed Nelson will take the mound against the Reds, who have a 38-50 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner - MIL, O/U - Over
The Reds currently sit below .500 against the NL Central Division at 18-28, and the Brewers have a 16-23 record.
Cincinnati has won 42% (23-32) of its games when leading after seven innings. However, Milwaukee has won 44% (21-27) of its games when taking a late lead.
After a weak showing last week where they got in six hits, the Reds need to step it up. The Brewers have a record of 20-7 when opponents get six hits or less.
When they outhit their opponents, the Reds are 34-10. The Brewers have a 42-9 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 23rd in runs, Milwaukee has earned 465 this season. Cincinnati ranks 20th with 490 runs.
Ranking 26th, Cincinnati is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 312 this season. Milwaukee ranks in the top five at third with 431.
When the Brewers hit at least one home run, they are 40-29. When the Reds hit at least one homer, they have a 34-37 record.