Matt Garza (3-4, 5.03 ERA) and Roberto Hernandez (1-0, 5.40 ERA) are on the hill in the last of a four-game series between the Milwaukee Brewers (50-62) and the Atlanta Braves (43-71) at Miller Park. The Brewers won the last game 4-3, and Atlanta leads the series 2-1. Action begins at 2:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, Aug. 11 and can be seen on FSSE.
Garza pitched 6.1 innings in his last outing, surrendering three runs (one unearned), striking out three and walking three in a 15-6 win over the Diamondbacks. Ryan Braun (.325, 56 Rs, 19 HRs, 58 RBIs, 13 SBs) continued his strong play yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one RBI. Hernandez went 5.0 innings, surrendering three runs, striking out four and walking one in a 13-5 win over the Cardinals in his most recent start. Freddie Freeman (.280, 62 Rs, 21 HRs, 48 RBIs, 4 SBs) has been successful at the plate for the Braves, going 3 for 3 yesterday with two runs, two home runs, and two RBIs.
Milwaukee is a -158 favorite against Atlanta and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at nine runs. The Brewers have an overall money line of -638 and a record as the favorite of 16-15. Milwaukee is a disappointing 1-3 as the favorite over its last 10 games. Milwaukee leads the MLB in steals, swiping 121 bases.
Over in the other dugout, Atlanta is coming in with an overall money line of -432 and a disappointing record of 40-60 as the underdog. They played solid baseball as the underdog over their last 10 games with a 7-2 record and a 7-3 record SU. Offensively, the Braves have really picked up the pace in the last 10 games. They have exceeded their season average of 3.5 runs per game by averaging 4.8 during that stretch. Atlanta is excellent at making contact with just 7.6 strikeouts per game, ranking third in the NL. The Braves allow 4.6 runs per game, but have improved upon those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 3.4 runs per game during that span.
The Brewers lead the season series, 4-2. The Brewers have a bad 28-48 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when Hernandez takes the mound. Garza (RHP) will be on the hill against the Braves, who have a 31-43 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - MIL, O/U - Over
The Braves lost their last game by a one-run margin. In games decided by one run, the Brewers are 16-22. The Braves are 14-17 in close games this season.
The Brewers are coming into this game after allowing two walks during their last outing. The Braves have a 12-37 record when opponents give up two walks or less.
When they are outhit, the Braves are 7-48. The Brewers have an 8-51 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 30th in home runs, Atlanta has hit 74 this season. Milwaukee ranks 21st with 120 home runs.
Ranking 13th, Milwaukee is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.11 per game. Atlanta ranks in the top 10 with 8.33.
Ranking 30th, Atlanta is at the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.670). Milwaukee ranks near the bottom at 21st with an OPS of .726.
The Braves are 18-55 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Brewers are 30-46 when they allow at least one homer.