Michael Pineda (6-10, 5.17 ERA) and the New York Yankees (57-56) are in Boston to meet Eduardo Rodriguez (2-5, 5.93 ERA) and the Red Sox (61-51) in a matchup that has the potential for plenty of offense. This is the last of a three-game series at Fenway Park. The Yankees won the last game 9-4, and the series is currently tied 1-1. The game starts at 7:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, Aug. 11 and will air on NESN and YES.
In his last start, Rodriguez pitched 4.1 innings, giving up three runs, striking out five and walking one in a 3-0 loss to the Dodgers. Mookie Betts (.312, 87 Rs, 23 HRs, 75 RBIs, 18 SBs) continued his strong season yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one RBI. The Yankees were victorious the last time Pineda pitched. He did not do well, pitching 6.0 innings, allowing four runs, striking out six and walking one in a 13-7 victory over the Indians. Didi Gregorius (.286, 48 Rs, 14 HRs, 50 RBIs, 5 SBs) has been doing well, going 2 for 5 yesterday with two runs, one home run, and one RBI.
Boston is a heavy -180 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at nine runs. When playing as the favorite, the Red Sox have a 44-35 record and overall money line at -446. They have a SU record of 22-20 against teams in their division and a 14-12 record when they were the favorite in those games. The Red Sox come into the game with the top-ranked scoring offense in the AL, averaging 5.4 runs per game. The Red Sox are a dangerous hitting team with an MLB-best 413 extra base hits. Boston's pitching staff has put it all together in the past 10 games. Its average runs allowed per game dropped to 3.3 during that span, compared to its 4.6 season average.
Switching gears, the Yankees come into this game with a weak win percentage of .360 when playing as the underdog (18-32) and an overall money line of -534. Over the past 10 matchups, the team is 4-6 SU and has played poorly as the underdog with a 1-4 record. The Yankees seem to play worse against their division opponents. In divisional matchups, New York has averaged 3.1 runs per game, compared to 4.1 for the duration of the season. Playing against AL East foes really brings the best out of the New York pitchers. They allow 4.0 runs per game against teams within their division, which is lower than their season average of 4.4.
The Red Sox have gotten the best of the Yankees in head-to-head matchups this season, going 7-4. The Red Sox will take on a right-hander (Pineda) in this game and have a 48-37 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. Taking the hill against the Yankees will be the left-hander Rodriguez. They sport a 15-19 record against southpaws.
Predictions: SU Winner - BOS, O/U - Over
The Yankees currently sit below .500 against the AL East Division at 15-24, and the Red Sox have a 22-21 record.
The Red Sox managed to give up four walks in their last game. They'll have to pick it up against the Yankees who are coming in with a 28-13 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Red Sox are 6-32. The Yankees have an 11-45 record when opponents outhit them.
New York ranks near the bottom of the league at 24th when it comes to home runs, hitting 113 this season. Boston ranks in the top half with 139.
Boston ranks at the top of the league when it comes to hits with 9.95 per game this season. New York ranks in the top half at 13th with 8.34.
Boston ranks at the top of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage of .816. New York ranks near the bottom at 27th with an OPS of .707.
When the Yankees allow at least one home run, they are 34-45, well-matched with the Red Sox who are 35-42 when allowing at least one homer.