Michael Lorenzen (3-6, 4.80 ERA) and the Cincinnati Reds (48-56) go up against Michael Wacha (12-4, 3.09 ERA) and the St. Louis Cardinals (67-39) in the last of a three-game division series at the Great American Ball Park. The Cardinals won the last game 4-3 and the series is currently tied 1-1. The game starts at 12:35 p.m. ET on Thursday, Aug. 6 and will air on FSOH and FSMW.
In his last start, Lorenzen pitched 5.2 innings, giving up five runs, striking out six and walking three in a 5-4 loss to the Pirates. Joey Votto (.309, 58 Rs, 19 HRs, 51 RBIs, 6 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday. The Cardinals were victorious the last time Wacha pitched. He pitched well, going 7.0 innings, allowing zero runs, striking out seven and walking one in a 7-0 victory over the Rockies. Randal Grichuk (.291, 38 Rs, 12 HRs, 38 RBIs, 4 SBs) has been hitting the ball well for the Cardinals, going 2 for 4 yesterday with one run.
Cincinnati is a +138 underdog in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at eight runs. The Reds perform poorly as an underdog with a 21-36 record and have an overall money line of -810. They have a 22-24 record SU and are 15-18 as the underdog within their division. They have been a terror on the base paths, leading all of baseball with 101 steals. As for the pitching staff, they have been extremely effective at striking opposing batters out at the Great American Ball Park, averaging 8.6 strikeouts per home game.
Switching to the opposing bench, the Cardinals come into this game with a solid win percentage of .705 when playing as the favorite (55-23) and an overall money line of +2,005. Against teams in their division, they are 26-16 SU and have played well as the favorite with a 20-8 record. St. Louis has an eye for the strike zone, ranking 3.1 in the NL with fifth walks per game. Shifting to the pitching staff, they have the lowest ERA in the NL at 2.66. They have a WHIP of 1.21 on the year, good for fifth in the league. They also have some of the most overpowering arms in baseball with an NL-high 8.4 strikeouts per road game.
The Cardinals have mostly come out on top against the Reds in their previous 10 games this season, earning a 6-4 record. This game will feature Wacha (RHP) on the mound against the Reds, who have a 36-43 record when they take on a right-handed starter. The right-handed Lorenzen will take the mound against the Cardinals. Against righty starters this season, they've racked up an impressive 53-25 record.
Predictions: SU Winner - StL, O/U - Over
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of St. Louis's last 12 games.
St. Louis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing Cincinnati.
St. Louis is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Cincinnati.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati.
The Cardinals sit at 26-16 against their divisional rivals, while the Reds are 22-24.
Cincinnati earned its seventh shutout of the season in its last game. St. Louis has been shut out eight times this season.
Having scored zero runs in their last game, the Reds are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Cardinals have a 10-0 record in games where opponents scored that many runs.
When they are outhit, the Reds are 8-38. The Cardinals have a 19-25 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 22nd in home runs, St. Louis has hit 86 this season. Cincinnati ranks ninth with 114 home runs.
Ranking sixth, Cincinnati is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 8.68 per game. St. Louis ranks in the top five at fifth with 8.70.
Cincinnati and St. Louis both rank in the top half of the league for their on-base plus slugging percentage. Cincinnati sits at 12th with an OPS of .722 and St. Louis ranks 13th with an OPS of .717.
The Cardinals are 28-27 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Reds are 20-43 when they allow at least one homer.