Patrick Corbin (4-10, 5.30 ERA) and Matt Garza (2-4, 5.32 ERA) are on the hill in the second of a three-game series between the Arizona Diamondbacks (44-65) and the Milwaukee Brewers (48-59) at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks won the last game 3-2, and Arizona leads the series 1-0. Action begins at 8:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, Aug. 6 and can be seen on FSAZ and FSWI.
Corbin pitched 5.1 innings in his most recent start, surrendering six runs (three unearned), striking out six and walking three in a 14-3 defeat to the Dodgers. Jake Lamb (.280, 55 Rs, 23 HRs, 69 RBIs, 4 SBs) went 1 for 5 yesterday. Garza went 5.0 innings, surrendering two, striking out five and walking one in a 4-2 win over the Pirates in his last outing.
Arizona is a -120 favorite against Milwaukee and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at nine runs. The Diamondbacks have an overall money line of -2,115 and a record as the favorite of 20-23. The Diamondbacks are one of the best in the NL in terms of hits with a phenomenal 9.1 per game. Arizona's pitching staff has been doing poorly against opposing offenses during the last 10 games, allowing an average of 8.0 runs per game, well above its season average of 5.5.
In games where it is the underdog, Milwaukee has a 32-45 record and an overall money line of -298. They played solid baseball as the underdog over their last 10 games with a 3-1 record and a 7-3 record SU. The Brewers are an excellent base-stealing team with an MLB-best 110 stolen bases.
The Brewers lead the season series, 3-2. The Diamondbacks have a bad 12-31 record at home (29-50 overall) against right-handed starting pitchers, which is what they'll be facing when Garza takes the mound. Corbin (LHP) will be on the hill against the Brewers, who have a 20-14 record against left-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - ARI, O/U - Over
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 7 games.
Milwaukee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 7 games when playing on the road against Arizona.
Milwaukee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona.
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Milwaukee.
The Brewers lost their last game by a one-run margin. In games decided by one run, the Diamondbacks are 13-11. The Brewers are 15-20 in close games this season.
Arizona has won 39% (21-33) of its games when leading after seven innings. However, Milwaukee has won 43% (20-26) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Brewers managed to give up four walks in their last game. They'll have to pick it up against the Diamondbacks who are heading in with a 17-17 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they outhit their opponents, the Diamondbacks are 31-12. The Brewers have a 39-9 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 26th, Milwaukee sits near the bottom of the league in runs, scoring 428 this season. Arizona ranks in the bottom half at 18th with 477.
Ranking 25th, Arizona is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 297 this season. Milwaukee ranks in the top five at third with 400.
When the Diamondbacks hit at least one home run, they are 36-35, well-matched with the Brewers who are 37-26 when hitting one or more homers.