Tyrell Jenkins (1-2, 4.91 ERA) and Ryan Vogelsong (1-1, 3.74 ERA) start in the last of a three-game series between the Atlanta Braves (38-69) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (53-52) at Turner Field. The Braves won the last game 8-4, and the series is currently tied 1-1. Action begins at 7:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, Aug. 4 and can be seen on FSSE and RTPT.
Jenkins pitched 6.0 innings in his most recent start, surrendering one runs (one unearned), striking out four and walking four in a 2-1 win over the Phillies. Freddie Freeman (.280, 54 Rs, 18 HRs, 43 RBIs, 4 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday with one run and one RBI. Vogelsong went 2.0 innings, surrendering zero runs and striking out two in a 6-3 win over the Rockies in his last outing. Gregory Polanco (.283, 58 Rs, 15 HRs, 56 RBIs, 11 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one run and one stolen base.
Pittsburgh takes on Atlanta as a -134 favorite. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is sitting at nine runs. The Braves have recorded an overall money line of -1,202 and have shown a weak performance as an underdog this season with a record of 34-59. Atlanta's batters do not strike out very often, with only 7.6 per game.
In games where it is the favorite, Pittsburgh has a 29-26 record and an overall money line of +103. Offensively, they average 4.6 runs per game, which is good for fifth in the NL. The Pirates are an excellent base stealing team with 80 stolen bases, ranking fourth in the MLB.
The Pirates lead the season series, 4-2. The Braves have a 26-43 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when Vogelsong takes the mound. Jenkins (RHP) will be on the hill against the Pirates, who have a 38-43 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - PIT, O/U - Under
Atlanta has won 33% (13-26) of its games when leading after seven innings. However, Pittsburgh has won 44% (21-27) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Pirates are coming into this game after allowing two walks during their last outing. The Braves have an 11-35 record when opponents give up two walks or less.
When they outhit their opponents, the Braves are 27-17. The Pirates have a 35-9 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 30th, Atlanta is at the bottom of the league in runs, scoring 371 this season. Pittsburgh ranks in the top half with 480.
Ranking 21st, Atlanta is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 307 this season. Pittsburgh ranks in the top half at 12th with 333.
When the Braves hit at least one home run, they are 22-25. When the Pirates hit at least one homer, they have a 37-22 record.