Kevin Gausman (2-5, 4.48 ERA) and Mike Pelfrey (6-7, 3.62 ERA) take the hill in the last of a four-game series between the Baltimore Orioles (62-60) and the Minnesota Twins (62-61) at Camden Yards. The Twins won the last game 3-2 and Minnesota can finish out the series sweep with a win in this game. Action begins at 1:35 p.m. ET on Sunday, Aug. 23 and can be seen on FSN and MASN.
Gausman pitched 6.0 innings in his most recent start, surrendering three runs, striking out six and walking one in a 5-3 defeat to the Mets. Manny Machado (.297, 76 Rs, 25 HRs, 62 RBIs, 16 SBs) went 1 for 5 yesterday. Pelfrey went 5.1 innings, surrendering one run, striking out four and walking one in an 8-4 defeat to the Yankees in his last outing. Brian Dozier (.245, 84 Rs, 25 HRs, 63 RBIs, 10 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one RBI.
Baltimore is a -168 favorite against Minnesota and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at nine runs. The Orioles have an overall money line of -117 and a record as the favorite of 40-29. The Orioles have no trouble scoring as they rank fourth in the AL in offense with 4.5 runs per game. Baltimore's pitching staff has been doing poorly against opposing offenses during the last 10 games, allowing an average of 5.0 runs per game, well above its season average of 4.0. The Orioles are the third-best team in the AL at limiting walks during home games, allowing only 2.4 walks per game to their opponents this season.
In games where it is the underdog, Minnesota has a 46-51 record and an overall money line of +1,149. Offensively, the Twins have really picked up the pace in the last 10 games. They have exceeded their season average of 4.3 runs per game by averaging 5.8 during that stretch. When it comes to issuing walks, the Twins have the fewest in the AL with only 2.5 walks allowed per game.
The Twins have dominated the season series, 6-0. The Orioles have a 45-47 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when Pelfrey takes the mound. Gausman (RHP) will be on the hill against the Twins, who have a 39-41 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - Bal, O/U - Over
The Twins won their last game by a one-run margin. In games decided by one run, the Orioles are 17-21. The Twins are 18-17 in close games this season.
The Orioles managed to give up four walks in their last game. They'll have to pick it up against the Twins who are coming in with a 22-7 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
It looks like the Twins have a slight leg up on the Orioles, as the Twins have won their last three games while the Orioles have lost their last three.
When they outhit their opponents, the Orioles are 45-11. The Twins have a 44-6 record when outhitting opponents.
Baltimore and Minnesota both rank in the top 10 of the league in runs. Baltimore sits at seventh with 541 runs this season and Minnesota ranks 10th with 529.
Baltimore and Minnesota both rank near the bottom of the league in walks. Baltimore sits at 26th with 295 this season and Minnesota ranks 23rd with 308.
When the Orioles hit at least one home run, they are 55-32, well-matched with the Twins who are 46-27 when hitting one or more homers.