Adam Conley (1-0, 5.82 ERA) and Aaron Nola (3-1, 4.41 ERA) take the hill in the last of a four-game series between the Miami Marlins (50-73) and the Philadelphia Phillies (49-74) at Marlins Park. The Phillies won the last game 4-2 and Philadelphia leads the series 2-1. Action begins at 1:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, Aug. 23 and can be seen on FSFL and CSPh.
Conley pitched 3.2 innings in his last outing, surrendering four runs, striking out seven and walking one in a 9-6 defeat to the Brewers. Justin Bour (.256, 25 Rs, 12 HRs, 39 RBIs) went 1 for 2 yesterday. Nola went 5.0 innings, surrendering three runs, striking out five and walking four in an 8-5 defeat to the Blue Jays in his most recent start.
Miami is a -125 favorite against Philadelphia and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at eight runs. The Marlins have an overall money line of -1,974 and a record as the favorite of 22-25. Miami has had a discouraging season against division opponents, earning records of 9-14 and 17-29 as the favorite and SU respectively. The Marlins have seen an uptick in scoring as of late, averaging 6.0 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 3.8 runs per game. The Marlins lead the MLB in extra base hits with 290. Miami is one of the best in the MLB in terms of steals, swiping 88 bases. Miami's pitching staff has been doing poorly against opposing offenses during the last 10 games, allowing an average of 5.3 runs per game, well above its season average of 4.2.
Over in the other dugout, Philadelphia is coming in with an overall money line of -543 and a disappointing record of 43-67 as the underdog. They played poorly as the underdog over their last 10 games with a 3-7 record, and a 3-7 record SU. Philadelphia is excellent at not striking out with just 7.4 per game, ranking fourth in the NL. The Phillies allow 5.0 runs per game, but have damaged those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 6.7 runs per game during that span.
The Phillies lead the season series, 7-5. The Marlins have a 40-57 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when Nola takes the mound. Conley (LHP) will be on the hill against the Phillies, who have an 11-16 record against left-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - Mia, O/U - Over
The Marlins currently sit below .500 against the NL East Division at 17-30, and the Phillies have a 20-27 record.
The Marlins are coming off of a weak pitching game where they recorded five strikeouts. The Phillies have a record of 20-14 when opponents' pitchers have that many strikeouts or fewer.
It looks like the Phillies have a slight leg up on the Marlins, as the Phillies have won their last two games while the Marlins have lost their last two.
When they outhit their opponents, the Marlins are 36-19. The Phillies have a 29-12 record when outhitting opponents.
Both falling near the bottom of the league based on total runs this season, Miami ranks 26th with 462 runs and Philadelphia is 24th with 463.
Miami and Philadelphia both rank near the bottom of the league in walks. Miami sits at 25th with 301 this season and Philadelphia ranks 29th with 277.
When the Marlins hit at least one home run, they are 30-36, well-matched with the Phillies who are 31-33 when hitting one or more homers.