Jacob deGrom (12-6, 2.29 ERA) is on the hill for the New York Mets (71-56) as they square off against Joe Kelly (7-6, 5.18 ERA) and the Boston Red Sox (58-69) in the second of a three-game series at Citi Field. The Red Sox won the last game 6-4 and Boston leads the series 1-0. Action begins at 4:05 p.m. ET on Saturday, Aug. 29 and can be seen on FS1, NESN and WPIX.
deGrom pitched 2.2 innings in his last outing, surrendering six runs (one unearned), striking out three and walking three in a 16-7 defeat to the Phillies. Yoenis Cespedes (.295, 81 Rs, 26 HRs, 84 RBIs, 7 SBs) went 1 for 6 yesterday with one run, one home run, and two RBIs. Kelly went 7.1 innings, surrendering two runs, striking out four and walking one in a 5-4 win over the White Sox in his most recent start.
This one isn't expected to be close when New York, a substantial -190 favorite, takes on Boston. The Over/Under (O/U) is sitting at seven runs for this matchup. The Mets have recorded an overall money line of +1,361 and have shown high-level performance as a favorite this season with a record of 55-19. New York is an impressive 6-1 as the favorite over its last 10 games. The Mets have seen an uptick in scoring as of late, averaging 8.3 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 4.1 runs per game. As for the pitchers, opposing offenses that come to Citi Field have been stifled by the Mets, who have a team ERA of only 2.96 at home. The Mets are the top team in the league at limiting hits and walks to their opponents, recording a WHIP of 1.17 so far this season.
In games where it is the underdog, Boston has a 25-30 record and an overall money line of -1,626. Boston is 1-1 as the underdog and 8-6 SU against National League opponents. Offensively, the Red Sox have really picked up the pace in interleague games. They have exceeded their season average of 4.5 runs per game by averaging 5.4 in those contests.
The Mets have a 56-44 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when Kelly takes the mound. deGrom (RHP) will be on the hill against the Red Sox, who have a 43-48 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - NYM, O/U - Over
After last game's shutout win against the Boston, the Mets now have 11 shutouts this season. The Red Sox have been shut out in seven games this season.
Having scored zero runs in their last game, the Mets are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Red Sox have a 6-0 record in games where opponents scored that many runs.
When they are outhit, the Red Sox are 11-58. The Mets have a 14-46 record when opponents outhit them.
Boston ranks in the top half of the league at 15th when it comes to home runs, hitting 121 this season. New York ranks in the top 10 at 10th with 132.
Ranking 13th, New York is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.31 per game. Boston ranks in the top five at third with 9.20.
Ranking 22nd, New York is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.701). Boston ranks in the top 10 at sixth with an OPS of .739.
The Red Sox are 30-57 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Mets are 33-40 when they allow at least one homer.