Jonathon Niese (8-9, 3.95 ERA) and Aaron Harang (5-14, 4.79 ERA) take the hill in the second of a three-game series between the New York Mets (72-58) and the Philadelphia Phillies (52-79) at Citi Field. The Mets won the last game 3-1 and New York leads the series 1-0. Action begins at 7:10 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Sep. 1 and can be seen on CSPh and SNY.
Niese pitched 6.0 innings in his last outing, surrendering five runs, striking out five and walking five in a 9-5 defeat to the Phillies. Lucas Duda (.247, 57 Rs, 21 HRs, 56 RBIs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one RBI. Harang went 6.0 innings, surrendering five runs and walking three in a 9-5 defeat to the Mets in his most recent start.
This one isn't expected to be close when New York, a big -221 favorite, takes on Philadelphia. According to the oddsmakers, the Over/Under (O/U) is currently eight runs. The Mets have recorded an overall money line of +1,076 and have shown high-level performance as a favorite this season with a record of 56-21. New York is an impressive 7-2 as the favorite over its last 10 games. The Mets have seen an uptick in scoring as of late, averaging 8.3 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 4.1 runs per game. New York is one of the best in the NL in terms of walks at home, earning an average of 3.1 per game. As for the pitchers, opposing offenses have been stifled by the Mets, who have a team ERA of only 3.37. The Mets are the top team in the league at limiting hits and walks to their opponents, recording a WHIP of 1.17 so far this season.
As for their opponent, Philadelphia is coming in with an overall money line of -552 and a disappointing record of 47-72 as the underdog. They have played poorly as the underdog with an 18-29 record against NL East rivals, and a 5-5 record SU. Offensively, the Phillies have really picked up the pace in the last 10 games. They have exceeded their season average of 3.8 runs per game by averaging 4.9 during that stretch. The Phillies average 5.1 runs allowed per game, but does better whenever another team from the NL East is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average down to 4.5 against division foes.
The Mets have controlled the season series, 12-1. The Mets have a 56-45 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when Harang takes the mound. Niese (LHP) will be on the hill against the Phillies, who have a 12-17 record against left-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - NYM, O/U - Over
The Mets sit at 34-17 against their divisional rivals, while the Phillies are 21-31.
Philadelphia has won 41% (26-38) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, New York has won 58% (29-21) of its games when taking a late lead.
Having scored zero runs in their last game, the Phillies are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Mets have an 11-0 record in games where opponents scored that many runs.
When they outhit their opponents, the Phillies are 31-12. The Mets have a 52-5 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 26th in runs, Philadelphia has earned 501 this season. New York ranks 16th with 530 runs.
Ranking 28th, Philadelphia is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 306 this season. New York ranks in the top half at 12th with 377.
The Mets are 47-23 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Phillies are 34-37 when they hit at least one homer.