Chris Tillman (9-9, 4.58 ERA) and the Baltimore Orioles (63-67) meet Drew Smyly (1-2, 3.82 ERA) and the Tampa Bay Rays (64-66) in the second of a three-game division series at Camden Yards. The Rays won the last game 6-3 and Tampa Bay leads the series 1-0. The game gets underway at 7:05 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Sep. 1 and will air on SUN, MASN and MLBN.
In his most recent outing, Tillman pitched 6.0 innings, allowing four runs, striking out one and walking one in a 5-3 loss to the Royals. Chris Davis (.251, 73 Rs, 35 HRs, 92 RBIs, 2 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday. The Rays were unsuccessful the last time Smyly pitched. He went 4.1 innings, giving up three runs (one unearned), striking out five and walking two in a 5-4 loss to the Twins. Logan Forsythe (.277, 55 Rs, 15 HRs, 53 RBIs, 9 SBs) has been hitting the ball well for the Rays, going 2 for 4 yesterday.
Baltimore is a -130 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at eight runs. When playing as the favorite, the Orioles have a 40-32 record and overall money line at -926. They have a winless record (0-4) in games played as the favorite during their last 10 games. Baltimore has averaged 2.8 runs per game over the last 10 games, lower than its season average of 4.3. The Orioles rank fourth in the majors in home runs with 169. Turning to the pitching and defensive side, teams routinely struggle to score runs against the Orioles, who allow only 4.0 runs per game.
Switching gears, the Rays come into this game with a win percentage of .471 when playing as the underdog (33-37) and an overall money line of -510. They have played at the top of their game when rated as the underdog as of late. They managed a 3-1 record when playing as the underdog and an SU record of 5-5. They also have some of the most overpowering arms in the AL with an average of 8.4 strikeouts per game.
The Orioles have mostly come out on top against the Rays in their previous 12 games this season, earning a 7-5 record. The Orioles will take on a left-hander (Smyly) in this game and have a 17-16 record against left-handed starting pitchers this season. The right-handed Tillman will take the mound against the Rays, who have a 41-52 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner - TB, O/U - Under
The Orioles hold a 26-24 record this season against teams in the AL East Division. The Rays' record in these matchups is 24-26.
When leading after 7 innings, Baltimore is 24-19, while Tampa Bay is 25-27.
Having scored zero runs in their last game, the Rays are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Orioles have a 9-0 record in games where opponents scored that many runs.
When they outhit their opponents, the Rays are 44-18. The Orioles have a 46-13 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 28th, Tampa Bay sits near the bottom of the league in runs, scoring 483 this season. Baltimore ranks in the top 10 at ninth with 564.
Baltimore and Tampa Bay both rank near the bottom of the league in walks. Baltimore sits at 25th with 310 this season and Tampa Bay ranks 21st with 351.
The Orioles are 56-35 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Rays are 47-35 when they hit at least one homer.