Matt Harvey (11-7, 2.48 ERA) and the New York Mets (73-59) square off against Aaron Nola (5-1, 3.26 ERA) and the Philadelphia Phillies (53-80) in a game that has the potential to be low scoring. This is the last of a three-game series at Citi Field. The Phillies won the last game 14-8 and the series is currently tied 1-1. Action begins at 7:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Sep. 2 and can be seen on CSPh and SNY.
Harvey pitched 6.0 innings in his most recent start, surrendering zero runs, striking out eight and walking one in a 6-4 defeat to the Red Sox. Yoenis Cespedes (.290, 84 Rs, 27 HRs, 86 RBIs, 7 SBs) had another good game yesterday, going 2 for 4 with two runs, one home run, and two RBIs. Nola went 7.0 innings, surrendering one run, striking out six and walking two in a 7-1 win over the Padres in his last outing. Jeff Francoeur (.271, 30 Rs, 12 HRs, 43 RBIs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with two runs and one RBI.
This one isn't expected to be close when New York, a big -240 favorite, takes on Philadelphia. The Over/Under (O/U) is sitting at seven runs for this matchup. The Mets have recorded an overall money line of +1,176 and have shown high-level performance as a favorite this season with a record of 57-21. New York is an impressive 8-2 as the favorite over its last 10 games. The Mets have seen an uptick in scoring as of late, averaging 7.2 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 4.1 runs per game. Crossing over to the pitching staff, opposing offenses have been stifled by the Mets, who have a team ERA of only 3.35. The Mets are the top team in the league at limiting hits and walks to their opponents, recording a WHIP of 1.17 so far this season.
In the other locker room, Philadelphia is coming in with an overall money line of -652 and a disappointing record of 47-73 as the underdog. They have played poorly as the underdog with an 18-30 record against NL East rivals, and a 4-6 record SU. The Phillies average 5.0 runs allowed per game, but does better whenever another team from the NL East is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average down to 4.5 against division foes.
The Mets have controlled the season series, 13-2. The Mets have a 57-45 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when Nola takes the mound. Harvey (RHP) will be on the hill against the Phillies, who have a 40-63 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - NYM, O/U - Over
The Mets sit at 35-18 against their divisional rivals, while the Phillies are 22-32.
When leading after 7 innings, New York is 29-22, while Philadelphia is 27-38.
The Phillies are coming off of a weak pitching game where they recorded five strikeouts. The Mets have a record of 22-6 when opponents' pitchers have that many strikeouts or fewer.
When they outhit their opponents, the Phillies are 31-13. The Mets have a 52-6 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 25th in runs, Philadelphia has earned 516 this season. New York ranks 16th with 541 runs.
Ranking 26th, Philadelphia is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 314 this season. New York ranks in the top half at 11th with 382.
The Mets are 48-24 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Phillies are 35-37 when they hit at least one homer.