In the second of a three-game series between the Milwaukee Brewers (56-75) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (79-51) at Miller Park, Zach Davies (0-0, 0.00 ERA) and Jeff Locke (7-8, 4.46 ERA) get the start. The Brewers won the last game 7-4 and Milwaukee leads the series 1-0. The game starts at 8:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Sep. 2 and will air on FSWI and RTPT.
This is the first start of the season for Davies. Ryan Braun (.278, 76 Rs, 24 HRs, 78 RBIs, 19 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday with one run, one RBI, and one stolen base. The Pirates were victorious over the Marlins 7-2 the last time Locke pitched. He went 7.0 innings, giving up two runs, striking out three and walking one. Jung Ho Kang (.290, 52 Rs, 13 HRs, 49 RBIs, 5 SBs) has been doing well, going 2 for 4 yesterday with two runs, one home run, and one RBI.
Milwaukee is a +135 underdog in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at eight runs. The Brewers perform poorly as an underdog with a 29-48 record and have an overall money line of -2,027. Over the last 10 games, they have performed poorly when playing as the underdog (1-4). Milwaukee has averaged 5.6 runs per game over the last 10 games, higher than its season average of 4.0. Milwaukee's pitching staff has fallen apart in the past 10 games. Its average runs allowed per game rose to 6.4 during that span, compared to its 4.5 season average.
Moving on to the opposing team, the Pirates come into this game with a solid win percentage of .685 when playing as the favorite (63-29) and an overall money line of +1,920. They have played at the top of their game when rated as favorite recently. They managed a 7-2 record when playing as the favorite and an SU record of 7-3. They sport the fifth-ranked offense in the NL, averaging 4.2 runs per game. One of the top hitting teams in the NL are the Pirates, who average 9.1 hits per game. The Pirates are one of the top pitching staffs in the NL, essentially shutting down opponents to the tune of 3.6 runs allowed per game. They also have some of the most overpowering arms in the NL with an average of 7.8 strikeouts per road game.
The Brewers have gotten the best of the Pirates in head-to-head matchups this season, going 7-6. This game will feature Locke (LHP) on the mound against the Brewers, who have a 16-14 record when they take on a left-handed starter. Taking the hill against the Pirates will be the right-hander Davies. Right-handed starters haven't been a big issue for them as they sport a 64-38 record.
Predictions: SU Winner - Pit, O/U - Over
The Brewers are 22-29 against their divisional rivals, while the Pirates are 21-30 against their division.
The Brewers are coming into this game after allowing zero walks during their last outing. The Pirates have a 7-13 record when opponents give up that many walks.
It looks like the Brewers have a slight leg up on the Pirates, as the Brewers have won their last two games while the Pirates have lost their last two.
When they outhit their opponents, the Brewers are 41-10. The Pirates have a 55-6 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 22nd in runs, Milwaukee has earned 528 this season. Pittsburgh ranks 14th with 550 runs.
Milwaukee and Pittsburgh both rank near the bottom of the league in walks. Milwaukee sits at 24th with 324 this season and Pittsburgh ranks 21st with 354.
When the Brewers hit at least one home run, they are 42-29. When the Pirates hit at least one homer, they have a 52-24 record.