This game could be low scoring as Taylor Jungmann (8-5, 2.48 ERA) and the Milwaukee Brewers (57-75) go up against Francisco Liriano (9-6, 3.28 ERA) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (79-52) in the last of a three-game series at Miller Park. The Brewers won the last game 9-4 and Milwaukee leads the series 2-0. The game gets underway at 7:20 p.m. ET on Thursday, Sep. 3 and will air on FSWI and RTPT.
In his most recent outing, Jungmann pitched 6.0 innings, giving up zero runs, striking out five and walking three in a 5-0 victory over the Reds. Ryan Braun (.282, 78 Rs, 24 HRs, 79 RBIs, 19 SBs) played well again yesterday, going 3 for 5 with two runs and one RBI. The Pirates were unsuccessful to the Rockies 5-3 the last time Liriano pitched. He went 6.0 innings, allowing three runs, striking out five and walking three.
Milwaukee is a +145 underdog in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is seven runs. The Brewers have a losing record of 31-48 when playing as the underdog and an overall money line of -1,748. They have not performed well against their division, earning an SU record of 23-29 and a 15-22 record when they were the underdog. Over their past 10 games, Milwaukee's offense has been playing lights out, averaging 5.8 runs per game, well over their season average of 4.1. Whenever an NL Central opponent shows up on the calendar, the Brewers pitch better. They allow an average of 4.5 runs per game, but allow just 4.0 against teams from their own division.
Switching to the opposing bench, the Pirates come into this game with a solid win percentage of .670 when playing as the favorite (63-31) and an overall money line of +1,621. Against divisional rivals, they are 21-31 SU and have played poorly as the favorite with a 16-17 record. They sport the fifth-ranked offense in the NL, averaging 4.2 runs per game. One of the top hitting teams in the NL are the Pirates, who average 9.0 hits per game. Pittsburgh's pitching staff tends to perform poorly when they play division rivals. They've allowed an average of 4.4 runs per game against teams from the NL Central, higher than their season average of 3.7.
The Brewers have mostly come out on top against the Pirates in their previous 14 games this season, earning an 8-6 record. This game will feature Liriano (LHP) on the mound against the Brewers, who have a 17-14 record when they take on a left-handed starter. The right-handed Jungmann will take the mound against the Pirates, who have a 64-40 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner - Pit, O/U - Over
Pittsburgh is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games.
Pittsburgh is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games on the road.
Pittsburgh is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee.
Pittsburgh is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee.
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh.
The Brewers hold a 23-29 record this season against teams in the NL Central Division. The Pirates' record in these matchups is 21-31.
The Brewers are coming off of a weak pitching game where they recorded four strikeouts. The Pirates have a record of 8-5 when opponents' pitchers have that many strikeouts or fewer.
It looks like the Brewers have a slight leg up on the Pirates, as the Brewers have won their last three games while the Pirates have lost their last three.
When they outhit their opponents, the Brewers are 42-10. The Pirates have a 55-6 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 21st, Milwaukee is near the bottom of the league in runs, scoring 537 this season. Pittsburgh ranks in the top half at 15th with 554.
Milwaukee and Pittsburgh both rank near the bottom of the league in walks. Milwaukee sits at 24th with 326 this season and Pittsburgh ranks 21st with 357.
The Brewers are 43-29 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Pirates are 52-25 when they hit at least one homer.