Matt Garza (6-14, 5.56 ERA) and the Milwaukee Brewers (58-75) are in Cincinnati to meet Keyvius Sampson (2-2, 6.43 ERA) and the Reds (55-77) in a game that could have plenty of offense. This is the first of a three-game series at the Great American Ball Park. The game starts at 7:10 p.m. ET on Friday, Sep. 4 and will air on FSOH and FSWI.
In his last start, Sampson pitched 3.2 innings, allowing five runs (one unearned), striking out three and walking two in a 12-9 loss to the Brewers. Joey Votto (.316, 81 Rs, 27 HRs, 70 RBIs, 8 SBs) continued his strong season Wednesday, going 2 for 5 with two runs, one home run, and three RBIs. The Brewers were unsuccessful to the Reds 12-9 the last time Garza pitched. He went 3.2 innings, allowing seven runs, striking out two and walking one. Khris Davis (.235, 36 Rs, 17 HRs, 48 RBIs, 3 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one RBI.
Cincinnati is a -124 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is eight runs. When playing as the favorite, the Reds have a 28-23 record and overall money line at -2,007. They have SU record of 4-6 and are unbeaten as the favorite (1-0) over their last 10 games. Cincinnati has averaged 5.4 runs per game over the last 10 games, higher than its season average of 4.0. The Reds are a nightmare for opponents on the bases with an MLB-high 120 steals.
On the other side, the Brewers have a subpar record of 32-48 when they are the underdog and are -1,628 overall with the money line. Against divisional rivals, they are 24-29 SU and 16-22 as the underdog. During the last 10 games, they averaged 5.3 runs per game, above their 4.1 season average. Milwaukee's pitching staff tends to perform well when they play division rivals. They've allowed an average of 4.0 runs per game against teams from the NL Central, lower than their season average of 4.5.
The Brewers have gotten the better of the Reds in head-to-head matchups this season, going 7-6. The Reds will take on a right-hander (Garza) in this game and have a 43-58 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. Taking the hill against the Brewers will be the right-hander Sampson. They sport a 40-61 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner - Cin, O/U - Over
Cincinnati is 4-15 SU in its last 19 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Cincinnati's last 15 games at home.
Cincinnati is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Milwaukee.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing at home against Milwaukee.
When leading after 7 innings, Milwaukee is 32-29, while Cincinnati is 18-30.
The Brewers are coming off of a weak pitching game where they recorded five strikeouts. The Reds have a record of 12-17 when opponents' pitchers have that many strikeouts or fewer.
When they outhit their opponents, the Reds are 43-16. The Brewers have a 43-10 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 24th, Cincinnati is near the bottom of the league in runs, scoring 529 this season. Milwaukee ranks in the bottom half at 20th with 542.
Ranking 24th, Milwaukee is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 331 this season. Cincinnati ranks in the top 10 at seventh with 410.
The Reds are 47-36 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Brewers are 44-29 when they hit at least one homer.