Marco Estrada (11-8, 3.16 ERA) and Chris Tillman (9-10, 4.87 ERA) take the hill in the last of a three-game series between the Toronto Blue Jays (77-58) and the Baltimore Orioles (65-70) at the Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays won the last game 5-1 and the series is currently tied 1-1. Action begins at 1:07 p.m. ET on Sunday, Sep. 6 and can be seen on MAS2 and RSN.
Estrada pitched 7.0 innings in his most recent start, surrendering two runs, striking out two and walking one in a 5-3 defeat to the Indians. Jose Bautista (.246, 90 Rs, 32 HRs, 91 RBIs, 6 SBs) continued his strong play yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one run, one home run, and two RBIs. Tillman went 4.2 innings, surrendering seven runs, striking out five and walking two in an 11-2 defeat to the Rays in his last outing. Chris Davis (.255, 79 Rs, 40 HRs, 100 RBIs, 2 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday with one run.
Toronto is a -168 favorite against Baltimore and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at nine runs. The Blue Jays have recorded an overall money line of +665 and have shown high-level performance as a favorite this season with a record of 57-30. Toronto is an impressive 7-3 as the favorite over its last 10 games. The Blue Jays have no trouble scoring as they lead the AL in offense with 5.5 runs per game. Toronto leads the whole AL in walks, earning an average of 3.4 per game. As for the Toronto defense and pitching staff, it's been a struggle for opposing teams to score runs against the Blue Jays. The 3.6 runs that Toronto's pitchers allow per home game makes them the second-ranked AL staff at home. The Blue Jays are the top team in the AL at limiting hits during home games, allowing only 7.7 hits per contest to their opponents this season.
Over in the other dugout, Baltimore is coming in with an overall money line of -916 and a disappointing record of 24-36 as the underdog. They played poorly as the underdog over their last 10 games with a 2-5 record, and a 3-7 record SU. Offensively, the Orioles have really picked up the pace in division games. They have exceeded their season average of 4.4 runs per game by averaging 4.8 in those contests. The Orioles can change the game with one swing of the bat, ranking fourth in the league with 177 home runs. The Orioles allow 4.1 runs per game, but have damaged those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 5.2 runs per game during that span.
The Blue Jays lead the season series, 8-6. The Blue Jays have a 57-46 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when Tillman takes the mound. Estrada (LHP) will be on the hill against the Orioles, who have a 17-17 record against left-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - Tor, O/U - Over
The Blue Jays are 28-24 against their divisional rivals, while the Orioles are 28-27 against their division.
The Blue Jays managed to give up four walks in their last game. They'll have to pick it up against the Orioles who are coming in with an 18-17 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Orioles are 11-51. The Blue Jays have a 13-46 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking first in home runs, Toronto has hit 186 this season. Baltimore ranks fourth with 177 home runs.
Ranking 10th, Baltimore is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 8.55 per game. Toronto ranks in the top five at fourth with 8.96.
Ranking first in on-base plus slugging percentage, Toronto has an OPS of .788 this season. Baltimore ranks 12th with an OPS of .727.
When the Orioles allow at least one home run, they are 37-50. When the Blue Jays allow one or more homers, they have a 43-41 record.