Michael Lorenzen (3-8, 5.66 ERA) and the Cincinnati Reds (55-79) meet Jimmy Nelson (11-10, 3.70 ERA) and the Milwaukee Brewers (60-75) in the last of a three-game division series at the Great American Ball Park. The Brewers won the last game 7-3, extending a six-game winning streak. The game gets underway at 1:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, Sep. 6 and will air on FSOH and FSWI.
In his last start, Lorenzen pitched 4.2 innings, giving up five runs, striking out five and walking one in a 13-6 loss to the Cubs. Joey Votto (.317, 83 Rs, 27 HRs, 70 RBIs, 8 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday. The Brewers were victorious the last time Nelson pitched. He pitched well, going 7.0 innings, allowing one run and striking out six in a 7-4 victory over the Pirates. Ryan Braun (.282, 80 Rs, 24 HRs, 79 RBIs, 22 SBs) has been hitting the ball well for the Brewers, going 2 for 4 yesterday with one run and two stolen bases.
Cincinnati is a slight -114 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at eight runs. The Reds are 28-25 as the favorite and have an overall money line of -2,258. They have a winless record (0-1) in games played as the favorite during their last 10 games. They have been a terror on the base paths, leading all of baseball with 120 steals.
Across the field, the Brewers have a record of 34-48 when they are the underdog and are -1,397 overall with the money line. Against divisional opponents, they are 25-29 SU and 17-22 as the underdog. During the last 10 games, they averaged 6.0 runs per game, above their 4.1 season average. Milwaukee's pitching staff tends to perform well when they play division rivals. They've allowed an average of 4.0 runs per game against teams from the NL Central, lower than their season average of 4.5.
The Brewers have mostly come out on top against the Reds in their previous 15 games this season, earning a 9-6 record. This game will feature Nelson (RHP) on the mound against the Reds, who have a 43-59 record when they take on a right-handed starter. The right-handed Lorenzen will take the mound against the Brewers, who have a 40-61 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner - Cin, O/U - Over
The Reds are 25-31 against their divisional rivals, while the Brewers are 26-29 against their division.
The Reds are coming off of a weak pitching game where they recorded six strikeouts. The Brewers have a record of 32-18 when opponents' pitchers have that many strikeouts or fewer.
The Brewers are coming into the game with six consecutive wins, while the Reds currently have a losing streak of two.
When they outhit their opponents, the Reds are 43-16. The Brewers have a 45-10 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 24th, Cincinnati is near the bottom of the league in runs, scoring 538 this season. Milwaukee ranks in the bottom half at 19th with 557.
Ranking 24th, Milwaukee is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 338 this season. Cincinnati ranks in the top 10 at seventh with 416.
When the Reds hit at least one home run, they are 47-37. When the Brewers hit at least one homer, they have a 46-29 record.