Justin Nicolino (3-2, 3.07 ERA) and Zach Davies (0-0, 8.31 ERA) take the hill in the first of a three-game series between the Miami Marlins (57-80) and the Milwaukee Brewers (60-76) at Marlins Park. Action begins at 1:10 p.m. ET on Monday, Sep. 7 and can be seen on FSFL and FSWI.
Nicolino pitched 7.0 innings in his last outing, surrendering zero runs, striking out three and walking two in a 7-1 win over the Braves. Justin Bour (.257, 31 Rs, 16 HRs, 51 RBIs) went 1 for 1 yesterday with one run, one home run, and one RBI. Davies went 4.1 innings, surrendering four runs, striking out three and walking three in a 9-4 defeat to the Pirates in his most recent start. Ryan Braun (.284, 81 Rs, 25 HRs, 80 RBIs, 22 SBs) has been successful at the plate for the Brewers, going 2 for 4 yesterday with one run, one home run, and one RBI.
Miami is a -122 favorite against Milwaukee and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at eight runs. The Marlins have an overall money line of -1,972 and a record as the favorite of 23-27. Miami is unbeaten as the favorite and has a 5-5 SU record in its last ten outings. The Marlins are one of the best in the MLB in terms of extra base hits with 330. Miami is one of the best in the MLB in terms of steals, swiping 98 bases.
In games where it is the underdog, Milwaukee has a 34-48 record and an overall money line of -1,397. They played solid baseball as the underdog over their last 10 games with a 5-2 record, and a 7-3 record SU. Offensively, the Brewers have really picked up the pace in the last 10 games. They have exceeded their season average of 4.1 runs per game by averaging 6.2 during that stretch. Milwaukee is excellent at not striking out n the road with just 7.7 per game, ranking fifth in the NL.
The Marlins lead the season series, 2-1. The Marlins have a 45-63 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when Davies takes the mound. Nicolino (RHP) will be on the hill against the Brewers, who have a 41-61 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - Mia, O/U - Over
Milwaukee recorded at least two errors for the 25th time this season.
The Marlins managed to give up five walks in their last game. They'll have to pick it up against the Brewers who are coming in with a 14-3 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Brewers are 10-59. The Marlins have an 11-52 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 29th in home runs, Miami has hit 101 this season. Milwaukee ranks 19th with 124 home runs.
Miami and Milwaukee both rank in the top 10 of the league in hits. Miami sits at sixth with 8.66 hits per game and Milwaukee ranks ninth with 8.58.
Miami and Milwaukee both rank near the bottom of the league for their on-base plus slugging percentage. Miami sits at 29th with an OPS of .687 and Milwaukee ranks 21st with an OPS of .712.
When the Brewers allow at least one home run, they are 34-54, well-matched with the Marlins who are 26-51 when allowing at least one homer.