Drew Hutchison (13-3, 5.07 ERA) and the Toronto Blue Jays (79-59) are in Boston to meet Joe Kelly (9-6, 4.84 ERA) and the Red Sox (65-73) in a game that could be high scoring. This is the last of a three-game series at Fenway Park. The Blue Jays won the last game 5-1 and the series is currently tied 1-1. The game starts at 7:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Sep. 9 and will air on NESN and RSN.
In his most recent outing, Kelly pitched 6.0 innings, giving up two runs, striking out five and walking three in a 7-5 victory over the Phillies. Mookie Betts (.285, 73 Rs, 13 HRs, 67 RBIs, 17 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday. The Blue Jays were unsuccessful the last time Hutchison pitched. He struggled, going 5.0 innings, allowing six runs and striking out two in a 10-2 loss to the Orioles. Josh Donaldson (.305, 108 Rs, 37 HRs, 115 RBIs, 5 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one run.
Boston is a +110 underdog in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at 10 runs. When playing as the underdog, the Red Sox have a 28-33 record and overall money line at -1,049. They have not performed well against their division, earning an SU record of 22-32 and an 11-15 record when they were the underdog. The Red Sox come into the game with the AL's second-ranked home scoring offense, averaging 5.4 runs per game in their own ballpark. The Red Sox lead the AL in hits at home with 10.2 per game. Don't expect the Boston hitters to swing wildly. They average only 6.8 strikeouts per game. Boston's pitchers struggle within their division. The Red Sox have given up an average of 5.4 runs to intra-division opponents, well over their defense's season average of 4.8.
Switching to the opposing bench, the Blue Jays come into this game with a solid win percentage of .656 when playing as the favorite (59-31) and an overall money line of +742. Over the past 10 matchups, they are 7-3 SU and have played well as the favorite with a 7-3 record. They sport the top-ranked offense in the AL, averaging 5.5 runs per game. One of the top hitting teams in the AL are the Blue Jays, who average 9.0 hits per game. Toronto has an eye for the strike zone, averaging an AL-best 3.4 walks per game. Shifting to the pitching staff, they allow just 2.5 walks per game, good for tops in the AL.
The Blue Jays have gotten the better of the Red Sox in head-to-head matchups this season, going 8-7. This game will feature Hutchison (RHP) on the mound against the Red Sox, who have a 48-51 record when they take on a right-handed starter. The right-handed Kelly will take the mound against the Blue Jays, who have a 59-47 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner - Tor, O/U - Over
The Red Sox are 22-33 against their divisional rivals, while the Blue Jays are 30-25 against their division.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Red Sox are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Blue Jays have a 24-0 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Red Sox are 14-61. The Blue Jays have a 13-47 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking first in home runs, Toronto has hit 191 this season. Boston ranks 15th with 135 home runs.
Boston and Toronto both rank in the top five of the league in hits. Boston sits at second with 9.29 hits per game and Toronto ranks fourth with 9.01.
Ranking first in on-base plus slugging percentage, Toronto has an OPS of .790 this season. Boston ranks sixth with an OPS of .744.
The Blue Jays are 45-42 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Red Sox are 32-59 when they allow at least one homer.