Tom Koehler (8-13, 4.08 ERA) and Ariel Pena (1-0, 6.00 ERA) are on the hill in the last of a three-game series between the Miami Marlins (58-81) and the Milwaukee Brewers (61-77) at Marlins Park. The Marlins won the last game 6-4 and the series is currently tied 1-1. Action begins at 7:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Sep. 9 and can be seen on FSFL and FSWI.
Koehler pitched 6.0 innings in his most recent start, surrendering two runs, striking out four and walking five in a 6-5 defeat to the Mets. Justin Bour (.258, 32 Rs, 16 HRs, 53 RBIs) went 1 for 3 yesterday with two RBIs. Pena went 3.0 innings, surrendering two runs, striking out two and walking one in a 7-3 win over the Reds in his last outing. Ryan Braun (.288, 83 Rs, 25 HRs, 81 RBIs, 22 SBs) has been successful at the plate for the Brewers, going 3 for 5 yesterday with one run.
Miami is a -131 favorite against Milwaukee and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at eight runs. The Marlins have an overall money line of -1,950 and a record as the favorite of 23-28. The Marlins are one of the best in the MLB in terms of extra base hits with 334. Miami is one of the best in the MLB in terms of steals, swiping 101 bases.
In games where it is the underdog, Milwaukee has a 35-48 record and an overall money line of -1,409. They have managed to pull off a perfect record over their last ten games while playing as the underdog, and have an 8-2 SU record over the same span. Offensively, the Brewers have really picked up the pace in the last 10 games. They have exceeded their season average of 4.2 runs per game by averaging 6.6 during that stretch. Milwaukee is excellent at not striking out with just 7.6 per game, ranking fifth in the NL.
The Marlins lead the season series, 3-2. The Marlins have a 45-64 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when Pena takes the mound. Koehler (RHP) will be on the hill against the Brewers, who have a 42-62 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - Mia, O/U - Over
Miami has won 39% (27-42) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Milwaukee has won 52% (33-30) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Brewers managed to give up five walks in their last game. They'll have to pick it up against the Marlins who are heading in with a 12-7 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they outhit their opponents, the Marlins are 41-20. The Brewers have a 46-11 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 29th in runs, Miami has earned 516 this season. Milwaukee ranks 18th with 573 runs.
Miami and Milwaukee both rank near the bottom of the league in walks. Miami sits at 27th with 322 this season and Milwaukee ranks 23rd with 349.
The Marlins are 36-39 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Brewers are 47-31 when they hit at least one homer.