Mark Buehrle (14-7, 3.66 ERA) and Rich Hill (0-0, 0.00 ERA) start in the last of a three-game series between the Toronto Blue Jays (85-63) and the Boston Red Sox (70-77) at the Rogers Centre. The Red Sox won the last game 7-6 and the series is currently tied 1-1. Action begins at 1:07 p.m. ET on Sunday, Sep. 20 and can be seen on NESN and RSN.
Buehrle pitched 5.0 innings in his last outing, surrendering one, striking out two and walking one in a 3-2 defeat to the Braves. Jose Bautista (.251, 102 Rs, 36 HRs, 104 RBIs, 8 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday with two runs, one home run, and two RBIs. Hill went 7.0 innings, surrendering zero runs, striking out 10 and walking one in a 2-0 defeat to the Rays in his most recent start. David Ortiz (.272, 68 Rs, 35 HRs, 98 RBIs) went 1 for 5 yesterday with one RBI.
This one isn't expected to be close when Toronto, a big -205 favorite, takes on Boston. The matchup has an estimated Over/Under (O/U) of nine runs. The Blue Jays have recorded an overall money line of +1,089 and have shown high-level performance as a favorite this season with a record of 65-33. Toronto is an impressive 6-2 as the favorite over its last 10 games. The Blue Jays have no trouble scoring as they lead the AL in offense with 5.5 runs per game. The Blue Jays are one of the best in the AL in terms of hits with an impressive 9.1 per game. Toronto leads the whole AL in walks, earning an average of 3.4 per game. Crossing over to the pitching staff, opposing offenses that come to the Rogers Centre have been stifled by the Blue Jays, who have a team ERA of only 3.19 at home. The Blue Jays are the top team in the AL at limiting hits during home games, allowing only 7.6 hits per contest to their opponents this season.
In games where it is the underdog, Boston has a 31-38 record and an overall money line of -1,070. They have played poorly as the underdog with a 14-20 record against fellow AL East members, and a 5-5 record SU. Boston is excellent at not striking out with just 7.0 per game, ranking third in the AL. The Red Sox allow 4.8 runs per game, but does worse whenever another team from the AL East Division is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average up to 5.2 against division foes.
The Blue Jays have a 20-12 record against left-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when Hill takes the mound. Buehrle (LHP) will be on the hill against the Red Sox, who have a 19-21 record against left-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - Tor, O/U - Over
The Blue Jays hold a 34-28 record this season against teams in the AL East Division. The Red Sox's record in these matchups is 27-37.
Boston has won 48% (34-37) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Toronto has won 59% (38-26) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Red Sox managed to give up eight walks in their last game. They'll have to pick it up against the Blue Jays who are heading in with a 5-2 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they outhit their opponents, the Red Sox are 56-9. The Blue Jays have a 68-7 record when outhitting opponents.
Toronto ranks at the top of the league when it comes to runs with 818 this season. Boston ranks in the top five at third with 685.
Ranking 14th, Boston is in the top half of the league in walks, notching 431 this season. Toronto ranks in the top five at second with 513.
When the Blue Jays hit at least one home run, they are 76-33. When the Red Sox hit at least one homer, they have a 54-43 record.