Runs may be hard to come by in this one as Lance Lynn (11-10, 3.28 ERA) and the St. Louis Cardinals (95-56) meet Brandon Finnegan (4-0, 2.53 ERA) and the Cincinnati Reds (63-87) in the last of a three-game series at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals won the last game 3-1 and St. Louis leads the series 2-0. The game gets underway at 8:15 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Sep. 23 and will air on FSOH and FSMW.
In his most recent outing, Lynn pitched 3.1 innings, giving up three runs, striking out two and walking six in an 8-3 loss to the Cubs. Matt Carpenter (.266, 91 Rs, 24 HRs, 77 RBIs, 3 SBs) continued his strong season yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one run. The Reds were victorious over the Brewers 5-3 the last time Finnegan pitched. He went 5.0 innings, allowing one run, striking out four and walking two. Todd Frazier (.261, 81 Rs, 35 HRs, 88 RBIs, 13 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday.
St. Louis is a heavy -190 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at seven runs. The Cardinals perform well as a favorite with a 79-37 record and have an overall money line of +2,527. They have performed well against their division to earn an SU record of 40-27 and a 33-18 record when they were the favorite. The Cardinals typically don't swing at bad pitches, which has led to an impressive 3.1 walks per game. St. Louis's pitching staff can be considered for best in its league, with an NL-low 2.89 team ERA.
Moving on to the away team, the Reds come into this game with a weak win percentage of .362 when playing as the underdog (34-60) and an overall money line of -2,025. Against teams in their division, they are 32-36 SU and 24-27 as the underdog. Cincinnati is a terror on the base paths, with an MLB-best 131 stolen bases.
The Cardinals have mostly come out on top against the Reds in their previous 18 games this season, earning an 11-7 record. The Cardinals will take on a left-hander (Finnegan) in this game and have a 22-18 record against left-handed starting pitchers this season. The right-handed Lynn will take the mound against the Reds, who have a 49-64 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner - StL, O/U - Over
The Cardinals sit at 41-27 against their divisional rivals, while the Reds are 32-37.
The Cardinals are coming into this game after allowing two walks during their last outing. The Reds have a 21-38 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
It looks like the Cardinals have a slight leg up on the Reds, as the Cardinals have won their last three games while the Reds have lost their last three.
When they outhit their opponents, the Reds are 48-17. The Cardinals have a 56-16 record when outhitting opponents.
Both falling near the bottom of the league based on total runs this season, St. Louis ranks 25th with 602 runs and Cincinnati is 23rd with 611.
St. Louis and Cincinnati both rank in the top 10 of the league in walks. St. Louis sits at eighth with 472 this season and Cincinnati ranks seventh with 478.
When the Cardinals hit at least one home run, they are 62-24. When the Reds hit at least one homer, they have a 54-42 record.