In the first of a four-game series between the Cincinnati Reds (63-88) and the New York Mets (85-67) at the Great American Ball Park, Josh Smith (0-2, 7.71 ERA) and Steven Matz (4-0, 1.80 ERA) get the ball. The game starts at 7:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, Sep. 24 and will air on FSOH and SNY.
In his most recent outing, Smith pitched 4.0 innings, allowing four runs, striking out three and walking two in a 9-7 loss to the Brewers. Joey Votto (.314, 93 Rs, 29 HRs, 76 RBIs, 11 SBs) played well again yesterday, going 2 for 3 with one run, one home run, and one RBI. The Mets were victorious over the Yankees 5-1 the last time Matz pitched. He went 6.0 innings, giving up one run, striking out four and walking one. Yoenis Cespedes (.291, 98 Rs, 35 HRs, 103 RBIs, 7 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday.
Cincinnati is a +144 underdog in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is eight runs. The Reds perform poorly as an underdog with a 34-61 record and have an overall money line of -2,125. They have been a terror on the base paths, leading all of baseball with 131 steals.
Across the field, the Mets have a nice record of 67-30 when they are favored and are +823 overall with the money line. The Mets rank fifth in the NL in road scoring, averaging four runs per game. One of the top road hitting teams in the NL are the Mets, who average 8.9 hits in games away from home. The Mets are a problem for opposing batters, sporting a 3.50 ERA this season. They have a WHIP of 1.18, second best in the MLB.
The previous three games have all gone New York's way. The Reds will take on a left-hander (Matz) in this game and have a 14-22 record against left-handed starting pitchers this season. The right-handed Smith will take the mound against the Mets, who have a 68-52 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner - NYM, O/U - Over
When leading after 7 innings, New York is 36-25, while Cincinnati is 23-34.
The Mets are coming off of a weak pitching game where they recorded four strikeouts. The Reds have a record of 7-6 when opponents' pitchers have that many strikeouts or fewer.
When they outhit their opponents, the Reds are 48-17. The Mets have a 60-7 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 23rd, Cincinnati is near the bottom of the league in runs, scoring 613 this season. New York ranks in the bottom half at 17th with 637.
Cincinnati and New York both rank in the top 10 of the league in walks. Cincinnati sits at seventh with 478 this season and New York ranks ninth with 461.
When the Reds hit at least one home run, they are 54-43. When the Mets hit at least one homer, they have a 59-28 record.