Rich Hill (1-0, 1.93 ERA) and Kevin Gausman (3-6, 4.26 ERA) start in the first of a three-game series between the Boston Red Sox (72-80) and the Baltimore Orioles (76-76) at Fenway Park. Action begins at 7:10 p.m. ET on Friday, Sep. 25 and can be seen on NESN and MASN.
Hill pitched 7.0 innings in his most recent start, surrendering three runs and striking out 10 in a 4-3 win over the Blue Jays. David Ortiz (.266, 69 Rs, 36 HRs, 101 RBIs) continued his strong play yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one run, one home run, and two RBIs. Gausman went 6.0 innings, surrendering four runs, striking out six and walking one in a 7-6 defeat to the Rays in his last outing. Manny Machado (.289, 94 Rs, 30 HRs, 78 RBIs, 17 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday with one RBI.
Boston is a slim -115 favorite at home against Baltimore. The Over/Under (O/U) is sitting at nine runs for this matchup. The Red Sox have an overall money line of -857 and a record as the favorite of 38-41. Boston has gone winless in its last 10 as the favorite.
In games where it is the underdog, Baltimore has a 31-41 record and an overall money line of -459. They played solid baseball as the underdog over their last 10 games with a 4-1 record, and a 7-3 record SU. The Orioles allow 4.2 runs per game, but does worse whenever another team from the AL East Division is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average up to 4.7 against division foes.
The Orioles have controlled the season series, 11-5. The Red Sox have a 20-23 record against left-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when Gausman takes the mound. Hill (LHP) will be on the hill against the Orioles, who have a 22-20 record against left-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - Bos, O/U - Over
The Red Sox are 29-40 against their divisional rivals, while the Orioles are 34-32 against their division.
When leading after 7 innings, Baltimore is 28-24, while Boston is 35-39.
The Orioles managed to give up five walks in their last game. They'll have to pick it up against the Red Sox who are heading in with a 20-15 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Red Sox are 15-66. The Orioles have a 13-57 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 15th in home runs, Boston has hit 150 this season. Baltimore ranks fourth with 204 home runs.
Ranking 12th, Baltimore is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.52 per game. Boston ranks in the top five at second with 9.34.
Ranking 13th, Baltimore is in the top half of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.730). Boston ranks in the top five at fifth with an OPS of .745.
When the Orioles allow at least one home run, they are 43-56. When the Red Sox allow one or more homers, they have a 37-64 record.