Casey Kelly (0-0, 4.50 ERA) and Rubby De La Rosa (13-8, 4.60 ERA) take the hill in the first of a three-game series between the San Diego Padres (72-81) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (73-80) at Petco Park. Action begins at 10:10 p.m. ET on Friday, Sep. 25 and can be seen on FSAZ and FSSD.
Kelly pitched 2.0 innings in his most recent start, surrendering one run and striking out three in a 10-2 defeat to the Rockies. Matt Kemp (.265, 78 Rs, 23 HRs, 99 RBIs, 11 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one RBI. De La Rosa went 5.2 innings, surrendering zero runs, striking out five and walking four in a 2-0 win over the Giants in his last outing. Paul Goldschmidt (.319, 96 Rs, 31 HRs, 104 RBIs, 21 SBs) has been successful at the plate for the Diamondbacks, going 2 for 4 yesterday with one run and one RBI.
Arizona is a slim -115 favorite over San Diego. The matchup has an estimated Over/Under (O/U) of seven runs. The Padres have an overall money line of -1,375 and a record as the underdog of 33-49. San Diego has recorded a disappointing 2-5 record as the underdog over its last 10 games. San Diego's pitching staff has been doing poorly against opposing offenses during the last 10 games, allowing an average of 5.9 runs per game, well above its season average of 4.6. Opponents have consistently been struck out by the Padres, who rank third in the NL in strikeouts per game with 8.6.
In games where it is the favorite, Arizona has a 32-30 record and an overall money line of -216. They are 15-13 as the favorite against NL West foes, and 34-36 SU. Offensively, they average 4.5 runs per game, which is good for second in the NL. The Diamondbacks are tough outs for opponents, leading the NL with 9.3 hits per game. The Diamondbacks are an excellent base stealing team with 127 stolen bases, ranking second in the MLB.
The Padres lead the season series, 9-7. The Padres have a 55-62 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when De La Rosa takes the mound. Kelly (RHP) will be on the hill against the Diamondbacks, who have a 54-59 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - Ari, O/U - Over
The Padres and the Diamondbacks both sit at records of 34-36 this season against teams in the NL West Division.
When leading after 7 innings, Arizona is 28-27, while San Diego is 38-39.
The Diamondbacks managed to give up six walks in their last game. They'll have to pick it up against the Padres who are heading in with an 8-1 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Padres are 11-58. The Diamondbacks have a 14-51 record when opponents outhit them.
Tied at 17th for total home runs, San Diego and Arizona have each hit 145 homers this season.
Ranking first in hits, Arizona has earned 9.28 per game this season. San Diego ranks 13th with 8.30 hits.
Ranking 27th, San Diego is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.693). Arizona ranks in the top 10 at ninth with an OPS of .740.
When the Diamondbacks allow at least one home run, they are 36-68. When the Padres allow one or more homers, they have a 40-58 record.