Mark Buehrle (14-7, 3.69 ERA) and the Toronto Blue Jays (89-65) meet Matt Andriese (3-5, 4.37 ERA) and the Tampa Bay Rays (75-80) in the last of a three-game division series at the Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays won the last game 10-8 and Toronto leads the series 2-0. The game gets underway at 1:07 p.m. ET on Sunday, Sep. 27 and will air on SUN and RSN.
In his most recent outing, Buehrle pitched 6.0 innings, allowing three runs, striking out one and walking two in a 4-3 loss to the Red Sox. Jose Bautista (.252, 106 Rs, 39 HRs, 110 RBIs, 8 SBs) played well again yesterday, going 2 for 3 with two runs, two home runs, and four RBIs. The Rays were unsuccessful the last time Andriese pitched. He tossed 1.0 innings, giving up zero runs in a 2-1 loss to the Orioles. Steven Souza Jr. (.222, 53 Rs, 16 HRs, 40 RBIs, 12 SBs) went 1 for 5 yesterday with one run and one RBI.
Toronto is a heavy -215 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is eight runs. The Blue Jays have a winning record of 68-36 when playing as the favorite and an overall money line of +930. They have performed well against their division to earn an SU record of 37-30 and a 23-18 record when they were the favorite. The Blue Jays are a dangerous hitting team with an MLB-best 526 extra base hits. The Blue Jays typically don't swing at bad pitches, which has led to an AL-high 3.5 walks per game. Toronto's pitching staff can be considered one of the best in the AL. The Blue Jays have a team ERA of 3.77, one of the lowest in their league. The Blue Jays don't give up many hits to opposing batters, ranking fourth in the AL with only 8.4 hits allowed per game.
On the other side, the Rays have a record of 39-42 when they are the underdog and are -759 overall with the money line. Against divisional opponents, they are 34-37 SU and 20-20 as the underdog.
The Rays have gotten the better of the Blue Jays in head-to-head matchups this season, going 8-7. The Blue Jays will take on a right-hander (Andriese) in this game and have a 68-51 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. Taking the hill against the Rays will be the left-hander Buehrle. They sport a 28-20 record against southpaws.
Predictions: SU Winner - Tor, O/U - Under
The Blue Jays hold a 38-30 record this season against teams in the AL East Division. The Rays' record in these matchups is 34-38.
Tampa Bay has won 48% (30-33) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Toronto has won 61% (41-26) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Rays managed to give up six walks in their last game. They'll have to pick it up against the Blue Jays who are heading in with a 23-5 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Blue Jays are 13-53. The Rays have a 13-48 record when opponents outhit them.
Toronto ranks at the top of the league when it comes to home runs with 220 this season. Tampa Bay ranks in the top half at 14th with 156.
Ranking 11th, Tampa Bay is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.53 per game. Toronto ranks in the top five at fourth with 9.02.
Ranking first in on-base plus slugging percentage, Toronto has an OPS of .796 this season. Tampa Bay ranks 19th with an OPS of .720.
When the Rays allow at least one home run, they are 35-60. When the Blue Jays allow one or more homers, they have a 51-46 record.