Ivan Nova (6-9, 4.87 ERA) and Eduardo Rodriguez (9-6, 3.97 ERA) are on the hill in the first of a four-game series between the New York Yankees (86-69) and the Boston Red Sox (75-80) at Yankee Stadium. Action begins at 7:05 p.m. ET on Monday, Sep. 28 and can be seen on YES and NESN.
Nova pitched 5.2 innings in his most recent start, surrendering one run, striking out six and walking two in a 4-0 defeat to the Blue Jays. Alex Rodriguez (.251, 81 Rs, 32 HRs, 84 RBIs, 4 SBs) went 1 for 1 yesterday. Rodriguez went 6.0 innings, surrendering three runs, striking out four and walking two in an 8-7 defeat to the Rays in his last outing.
New York is a -160 favorite against Boston and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at eight runs. The Yankees have recorded an overall money line of +281 and have shown high-level performance as a favorite this season with a record of 54-35. Within its division, New York has a 22-15 record as favorite and a 37-32 record SU. The Yankees have no trouble scoring as they rank second in the AL in offense with 4.8 runs per game. The Yankees are one of the best in the MLB in terms of extra base hits with 483. New York is one of the best in the AL in terms of walks at home, earning an average of 3.3 per game. New York's pitching staff has been doing better against opposing offenses during the last 10 games, only allowing an average of 2.8 runs per game, well under their season average of 4.2.
In games where it is the underdog, Boston has a 36-38 record and an overall money line of -768. They played solid baseball as the underdog over their last 10 games with a 6-1 record, and a 6-4 record SU. Boston is excellent at drawing walks with 3.0 per road game, ranking fifth in the AL.
The Yankees lead the season series, 10-5. The Yankees have a 59-49 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when Rodriguez takes the mound.
Predictions: SU Winner - NYY, O/U - Over
The Yankees are 37-32 against their divisional rivals, while the Red Sox are 32-40 against their division.
New York has won 47% (35-40) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Boston has won 48% (36-39) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Red Sox are coming into this game after allowing one walk during their last outing. The Yankees have a 13-14 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they outhit their opponents, the Red Sox are 60-9. The Yankees have a 57-8 record when outhitting opponents.
Both falling in the top five of the league based on total runs this season, New York ranks second with 741 runs and Boston is third with 720.
Ranking 15th, Boston is in the top half of the league in walks, notching 458 this season. New York ranks in the top five at fifth with 523.
The Yankees are 74-41 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Red Sox are 56-44 when they hit at least one homer.