Chris Tillman (10-11, 5.16 ERA) and Marco Estrada (13-8, 3.13 ERA) are on the hill in the first of a four-game series between the Baltimore Orioles (76-79) and the Toronto Blue Jays (90-65) at Camden Yards. Action begins at 7:05 p.m. ET on Monday, Sep. 28 and can be seen on MASN and RSN.
Tillman pitched 6.0 innings in his most recent start, surrendering three runs, striking out five and walking three in a 4-3 win over the Nationals. Manny Machado (.288, 94 Rs, 30 HRs, 78 RBIs, 18 SBs) had another good game yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one stolen base. Estrada went 6.2 innings, surrendering two runs, striking out three and walking three in a 6-4 defeat to the Yankees in his last outing. Josh Donaldson (.299, 121 Rs, 41 HRs, 122 RBIs, 6 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with two runs, one home run, and one RBI.
Toronto takes on Baltimore as a -128 favorite. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is sitting at eight runs. The Orioles have an overall money line of -563 and a record as the underdog of 32-41. Baltimore has gone 4-1 in its last 10 as underdog. The Orioles have seen a decline in scoring as of late, averaging 3.2 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 4.4 runs per game. The Orioles are one of the best in the MLB in terms of home runs with 204. Baltimore's pitchers fall apart when division rivals are on the field. Its average runs allowed per game rises to 4.8 against fellow AL East members, compared to its 4.3 season average.
As for their opponent, Toronto is coming in with an overall money line of +1,030 and an impressive record of 69-36 as the favorite. They played solid baseball as the favorite over their last 10 games with a 7-3 record, and a 7-3 record SU. Offensively, they average 5.5 runs per game, which is tops in the AL. The Blue Jays have a dynamic offense, leading the league with 532 extra base hits. Toronto is excellent at drawing walks with an AL-best 3.5 per game. When it comes to preventing batters from getting hits, the Blue Jays are fourth in the AL with an average of 8.4 hits allowed per game.
The Blue Jays lead the season series, 9-6. The Orioles have a 54-57 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when Estrada takes the mound. Tillman (RHP) will be on the hill against the Blue Jays, who have a 69-51 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - Tor, O/U - Over
The Orioles hold a 34-35 record this season against teams in the AL East Division. The Blue Jays' record in these matchups is 39-30.
For the 16th time this season, the Orioles registered at least two errors in a game.
Having scored zero runs in their last game, the Orioles are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Blue Jays have a 10-0 record in games where opponents scored that many runs.
It looks like the Blue Jays have a slight leg up on the Orioles, as the Blue Jays have won their last four games while the Orioles have lost their last three.
When they outhit their opponents, the Orioles are 56-13. The Blue Jays have a 73-7 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking first in runs, Toronto has earned 853 this season. Baltimore ranks 13th with 672 runs.
Ranking first in walks, Toronto has earned 544 this season. Baltimore ranks 25th with 393 walks.
When the Orioles hit at least one home run, they are 65-41, well-matched with the Blue Jays who are 80-35 when hitting one or more homers.