In the second of a three-game series between the Tampa Bay Rays (76-81) and the Miami Marlins (69-88) at Tropicana Field, Drew Smyly (4-2, 3.26 ERA) and Jarred Cosart (2-4, 4.15 ERA) take the mound. The Rays won the last game 4-2 and Tampa Bay leads the series 1-0. The game starts at 7:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Sep. 30 and will air on SUN and FSFL.
In his most recent outing, Smyly pitched 6.1 innings, giving up zero runs, striking out seven and walking three in a 6-2 victory over the Red Sox. Steven Souza Jr. (.223, 54 Rs, 16 HRs, 40 RBIs, 12 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday. The Marlins were unsuccessful to the Phillies 1-0 the last time Cosart pitched. He went 4.0 innings, allowing zero runs, striking out two and walking two. Christian Yelich (.293, 59 Rs, 7 HRs, 42 RBIs, 16 SBs) has been doing well, going 2 for 4 yesterday with one run and one RBI.
Tampa Bay, a -143 favorite, will look to capitalize at home against Miami. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is set at seven runs. When playing as the favorite, the Rays have a 37-37 record and overall money line at -859. They have performed well against the National League to earn a SU record of 12-6 and a 7-4 record when they were the favorite. Over their past 10 games, Tampa Bay's offense has been playing lights out, averaging 4.9 runs per game, well over their season average of 3.9. Turning to the pitching staff, the Rays rank second in the NL in ERA with a 3.74 team average.
Across the field, the Marlins have a record of 40-59 when they are the underdog and are -1,211 overall with the money line. They have played poorly as the underdog as of late. They managed a 1-4 record when playing as the underdog and a SU record of 5-5. Miami has stepped up their play against interleague opponents averaging an impressive 4.4 runs per game compared to their 3.8 runs per game season average. Miami is a terror on the base paths, ranking fourth in the MLB with 110 stolen bases. Miami's pitching staff has allowed an average of 5.4 runs per game during the last 10 games, higher than their season average of 4.2. They also average just 8.4 hits allowed per game, fifth-best in the NL.
The Rays are 3-1 against the Marlins this season. The Rays will take on a right-hander (Cosart) in this game and have a 47-59 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. Taking the hill against the Marlins will be the left-hander Smyly. They sport a 13-18 record against southpaws.
Predictions: SU Winner - TB, O/U - Over
Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay.
Miami is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games when playing Tampa Bay.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay.
Miami is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay.
Miami has won 42% (33-45) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Tampa Bay has won 48% (30-33) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Marlins are coming into this game after allowing two walks during their last outing. The Rays have a 31-42 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they outhit their opponents, the Rays are 54-25. The Marlins have a 50-22 record when outhitting opponents.
Tampa Bay and Miami both rank near the bottom of the league in runs. Tampa Bay sits at 26th with 614 runs this season and Miami ranks 29th with 594.
Ranking 29th, Miami is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 362 this season. Tampa Bay ranks in the bottom half at 20th with 427.
When the Rays hit at least one home run, they are 58-45, well-matched with the Marlins who are 43-42 when hitting one or more homers.