Jake Odorizzi (8-9, 3.49 ERA) and Jose Fernandez (6-0, 2.91 ERA) are on the hill in the last of a three-game series between the Tampa Bay Rays (77-81) and the Miami Marlins (69-89) at Tropicana Field. The Rays won the last game 6-4 and Tampa Bay leads the series 2-0. Action begins at 7:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, Oct. 1 and can be seen on SUN and FSFL.
Odorizzi pitched 5.0 innings in his most recent start, surrendering four runs, striking out four and walking three in a 5-3 defeat to the Blue Jays. Steven Souza Jr. (.224, 55 Rs, 16 HRs, 40 RBIs, 12 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday with one run. Fernandez went 5.0 innings, surrendering six runs, striking out two and walking one in a 12-11 win over the Braves in his last outing. Justin Bour (.265, 42 Rs, 23 HRs, 71 RBIs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one run.
Miami takes on Tampa Bay as a -125 favorite. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is sitting at six runs. The Rays have an overall money line of -759 and a record as the underdog of 39-44. In interleague play, they have had a solid season, earning 5-2 and 13-6 records as the underdog and SU respectively. The Rays have seen an uptick in scoring as of late, averaging 5.4 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 3.9 runs per game. As for the pitchers, opposing offenses have been stifled by the Rays, who have a team ERA of only 3.75.
In games where it is the favorite, Miami has a 29-29 record and an overall money line of -1,311. They played solid baseball as the favorite over their last 10 games with a 4-1 record, and a 5-5 record SU. Offensively, the Marlins have really picked up the pace in interleague games. They have exceeded their season average of 3.8 runs per game by averaging 4.4 in those contests. The Marlins are an excellent base stealing team with 110 stolen bases, ranking fourth in the MLB. The Marlins allow 4.2 runs per game, but have damaged those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 5.5 runs per game during that span. When it comes to preventing batters from getting hits, the Marlins are third in the NL on the road with an average of 8.2 hits allowed per away game.
The Rays lead the season series, 4-1. The Rays have a 48-59 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when Fernandez takes the mound. Odorizzi (RHP) will be on the hill against the Marlins, who have a 56-70 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - TB, O/U - Over
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games.
Miami is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games on the road.
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay.
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay.
Miami is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay.
The Rays managed to give up four walks in their last game. They'll have to pick it up against the Marlins who are coming in with a 25-16 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
It looks like the Rays have a slight leg up on the Marlins, as the Rays have won their last two games while the Marlins have lost their last two.
When they outhit their opponents, the Rays are 55-25. The Marlins have a 50-22 record when outhitting opponents.
Both falling near the bottom of the league based on total runs this season, Tampa Bay ranks 26th with 620 runs and Miami is 29th with 598.
Ranking 29th, Miami is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 366 this season. Tampa Bay ranks in the bottom half at 20th with 432.
The Rays are 59-45 when they hit at least one home run. The Marlins perform similarly when they hit one or more homers with a 43-42 record.