In the last of a three-game series between the Cincinnati Reds (63-95) and the Chicago Cubs (93-65) at the Great American Ball Park, John Lamb (1-4, 5.40 ERA) and Jason Hammel (9-7, 3.86 ERA) take the mound. The Reds lost the last game 10-3, extending an 11-game losing streak. The game gets underway at 12:35 p.m. ET on Thursday, Oct. 1 and will air on CSCh and MLBN.
In his last start, Lamb pitched 2.0 innings, giving up five runs, striking out four and walking two in a 10-2 loss to the Mets. The Cubs were also unsuccessful the last time Hammel pitched. He went 4.0 innings, allowing three runs and striking out two in a 4-0 loss to the Pirates. Anthony Rizzo (.278, 92 Rs, 30 HRs, 95 RBIs, 17 SBs) has been hitting the ball well for the Cubs, going 2 for 5 yesterday with two runs.
Cincinnati is a +120 underdog in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is eight runs. The Reds have a losing record of 34-69 when playing as the underdog and an overall money line of -2,925. Over their last 10 games, they have no wins either SU or when playing as the underdog (0-10). Cincinnati has averaged 2.1 runs per game over the last 10 games, lower than its season average of 4.0. They have been a terror on the base paths, leading all of baseball with 131 steals. Cincinnati's pitching staff has fallen apart in the past 10 games. Its average runs allowed per game rose to 7.0 during that span, compared to its 4.7 season average. They have been extremely effective at striking opposing batters out at the Great American Ball Park, averaging 8.6 strikeouts per home game.
Moving on to the opposing team, the Cubs come into this game with a solid win percentage of .642 when playing as the favorite (68-38) and an overall money line of +1,357. Against divisional foes, they are 42-30 SU and have played well as the favorite with a 29-15 record. They sport the second-ranked offense in the NL, averaging four runs per game. The Cubs average 3.5 walks per game, making them the most disciplined team in the NL. The Cubs are a problem for opposing batters, sporting a 3.44 ERA this season. They have a WHIP of 1.16 on the year, good for tops in the league. The Chicago pitching staff has been an intimidating group on the road this year, averaging an NL-best 8.5 strikeouts per game.
The Cubs have mostly come out on top against the Reds in their previous 18 games this season, earning a 12-6 record. This game will feature Hammel (RHP) on the mound against the Reds, who have a 49-71 record when they take on a right-handed starter. Taking the hill against the Cubs will be the left-hander Lamb. They sport an 18-14 record against southpaws.
Predictions: SU Winner - ChC, O/U - Over
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chi Cubs's last 8 games.
Chi Cubs are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chi Cubs's last 9 games on the road.
Chi Cubs are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games on the road.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chi Cubs's last 8 games when playing Cincinnati.
Chi Cubs are 15-6 SU in their last 21 games when playing Cincinnati.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati.
Chi Cubs are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati.
The Reds hold a 32-40 record this season against teams in the NL Central Division. The Cubs' record in these matchups is 42-30.
The Reds managed to give up four walks in their last game. They'll have to pick it up against the Cubs who are coming in with a 49-18 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
The Cubs are coming into the game with four consecutive wins, while the Reds currently have a losing streak of 11.
When they outhit their opponents, the Reds are 48-18. The Cubs have a 64-9 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 25th, Cincinnati is near the bottom of the league in runs, scoring 630 this season. Chicago ranks in the bottom half at 17th with 674.
Ranking eighth, Cincinnati is in the top 10 of the league in walks, notching 487 this season. Chicago ranks in the top five at second with 551.
When the Reds hit at least one home run, they are 54-45. When the Cubs hit at least one homer, they have a 66-28 record.