In the first of a three-game series between the Philadelphia Phillies (62-97) and the Miami Marlins (69-90) at Citizens Bank Park, Aaron Harang (6-15, 4.86 ERA) and Justin Nicolino (4-4, 4.16 ERA) get the ball. The game starts at 7:05 p.m. ET on Friday, Oct. 2 and will air on FSFL and CSPh.
In his most recent outing, Harang pitched 6.0 innings, allowing two runs, striking out two and walking one in a 12-5 loss to the Nationals. Ryan Howard (.229, 53 Rs, 23 HRs, 77 RBIs) went 1 for 3 yesterday with one run, one home run, and one RBI. The Marlins were victorious over the Braves 6-2 the last time Nicolino pitched. He went 7.0 innings, giving up one run and walking three.
Philadelphia is a +109 underdog in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at eight runs. The Phillies have a losing record of 55-89 when playing as the underdog and an overall money line of -723. They have disappointing records of 24-41 as the underdog and 29-44 SU within their division. Philadelphia's pitching staff has put it all together in the past 10 games. Its average runs allowed per game dropped to 2.6 during that span, compared to its 5.0 season average.
Moving on to the opposing team, the Marlins come into this game with a win percentage of .500 when playing as the favorite (29-29) and an overall money line of -1,311. Over the past 10 matchups, they are 5-5 SU and have played well as the favorite with a 4-1 record. One of the top hitting teams in the NL are the Marlins, who average 8.8 hits per game. Miami is a terror on the base paths, ranking fourth in the MLB with 110 stolen bases. The last 10 games have really brought the worst out of the Miami pitchers. They allowed 5.5 runs per game during that span, which is higher than their season average of 4.2.
The Phillies have mostly come out on top against the Marlins in their previous 16 games this season, earning a 9-7 record. The Phillies will take on a right-hander (Nicolino) in this game and have a 47-76 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. Taking the hill against the Marlins will be the right-hander Harang. They sport a 56-70 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner - Mia, O/U - Over
The Phillies currently sit below .500 against the NL East Division at 29-44, and the Marlins have a 33-40 record.
Miami has won 42% (33-46) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Philadelphia has won 42% (31-43) of its games when taking a late lead.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Marlins are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Phillies have a 16-4 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Marlins are 14-59. The Phillies have a 19-74 record when opponents outhit them.
Both falling near the bottom of the league based on total home runs this season, Philadelphia ranks 28th with 128 homers and Miami is 29th with 118.
Ranking 10th, Philadelphia is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 8.49 per game. Miami ranks in the top five at fifth with 8.76.
Philadelphia and Miami both rank near the bottom of the league for their on-base plus slugging percentage. Philadelphia sits at 29th with an OPS of .683 and Miami ranks 26th with an OPS of .695.
When the Marlins allow at least one home run, they are 30-61, well-matched with the Phillies who are 32-71 when allowing at least one homer.