Josh Tomlin (6-2, 3.03 ERA) and Henry Owens (4-3, 3.84 ERA) start in the first of a three-game series between the Cleveland Indians (78-80) and the Boston Red Sox (78-81) at Progressive Field. Action begins at 7:10 p.m. ET on Friday, Oct. 2 and can be seen on STOh and NESN.
Tomlin pitched 3.2 innings in his most recent start, surrendering five runs in a 9-5 defeat to the Royals. Owens went 7.2 innings, surrendering zero runs, striking out five and walking one in a 2-0 win over the Orioles in his last outing. David Ortiz (.272, 72 Rs, 36 HRs, 105 RBIs) has been successful at the plate for the Red Sox, going 2 for 2 yesterday with one run and one RBI.
Cleveland is a -138 favorite against Boston and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at eight runs. The Indians have an overall money line of -1,621 and a record as the favorite of 52-51. Cleveland is a disappointing 2-6 as the favorite over its last 10 games. Cleveland is one of the best in the AL in terms of walks at home, earning an average of 3.5 per game. As for the pitchers, the Indians are the fourth-best team in the league at limiting hits and walks to their opponents, recording a WHIP of 1.19 so far this season.
In games where it is the underdog, Boston has a 40-39 record and an overall money line of -321. They played solid baseball as the underdog over their last 10 games with a 6-1 record, and a 6-4 record SU. The Red Sox allow 4.7 runs per game, but have improved upon those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 2.9 runs per game during that span.
The Red Sox lead the season series, 2-1. The Indians have a 22-30 record against left-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when Owens takes the mound. Tomlin (RHP) will be on the hill against the Red Sox, who have a 57-57 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - Cle, O/U - Over
Boston has won 49% (38-40) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Cleveland has won 51% (28-27) of its games when taking a late lead.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Red Sox are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Indians have a 29-1 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
When they outhit their opponents, the Indians are 66-14. The Red Sox have a 63-9 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 18th in runs, Cleveland has earned 656 this season. Boston ranks third with 745 runs.
Ranking 13th, Boston is in the top half of the league in walks, notching 470 this season. Cleveland ranks in the top 10 at sixth with 523.
The Indians are 59-32 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Red Sox are 59-44 when they hit at least one homer.