Zack Greinke (18-3, 1.68 ERA) starts for the Los Angeles Dodgers (90-70) as they square off against Robbie Erlin (1-1, 6.30 ERA) and the San Diego Padres (74-86) in the second of a three-game series at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers won the last game 6-2 and Los Angeles leads the series 1-0. Action begins at 9:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, Oct. 3 and can be seen on FSSD and SNLA.
Greinke pitched 7.0 innings in his last outing, surrendering two runs, striking out seven and walking three in a 3-2 defeat to the Giants. Justin Turner (.291, 54 Rs, 15 HRs, 59 RBIs, 5 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday with one run and two RBIs. Erlin went 7.0 innings, surrendering zero runs, striking out four and walking one in a 3-0 win over the Diamondbacks in his most recent start. Matt Kemp (.265, 80 Rs, 23 HRs, 100 RBIs, 12 SBs) went 1 for 2 yesterday with one RBI.
This one isn't expected to be close when Los Angeles, a substantial -250 favorite, takes on San Diego. The matchup has an estimated Over/Under (O/U) of six runs. The Dodgers have an overall money line of -1,250 and a record as the favorite of 80-60. Los Angeles has had an impressive season against division opponents, earning 41-28 and 44-30 records as the favorite and SU respectively. Los Angeles is one of the best in the NL in terms of walks, earning an average of 3.5 per game. Turning to the pitchers, opposing offenses have been stifled by the Dodgers, who have a team ERA of only 3.49. The Dodgers are the second-best team in the league at limiting hits and walks to their opponents, recording a WHIP of 1.19 so far this season. Opponents have consistently been struck out by the Dodgers, who rank third in the NL in strikeouts per game with 8.6.
As for their opponent, San Diego is coming in with an overall money line of -1,703 and a disappointing record of 34-51 as the underdog. They are 15-26 as the underdog against NL West rivals, and 35-39 SU. Offensively, the Padres have really sputtered in the last 10 games. They have decreased their season average of 4.0 runs per game by averaging 2.8 during that stretch.
The Dodgers have controlled the season series, 12-5. The Dodgers have a 20-17 record against left-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when Erlin takes the mound. Greinke (RHP) will be on the hill against the Padres, who have a 57-66 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - LAD, O/U - Over
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games.
San Diego is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 10 of San Diego's last 11 games on the road.
San Diego is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games on the road.
San Diego is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing LA Dodgers.
San Diego is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers.
The Dodgers hold a 44-30 record this season against teams in the NL West Division. The Padres' record in these matchups is 35-39.
The Dodgers are coming into this game after allowing one walk during their last outing. The Padres have a 14-30 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Padres are 12-61. The Dodgers have a 15-51 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 19th in home runs, San Diego has hit 146 this season. Los Angeles ranks seventh with 183 home runs.
Los Angeles and San Diego both rank in the top half of the league in hits. Los Angeles sits at 13th with 8.31 hits per game and San Diego ranks 15th with 8.21.
Ranking 28th, San Diego is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.689). Los Angeles ranks in the top 10 at eighth with an OPS of .740.
The Padres are 41-61 when they allow at least one home run. The Dodgers perform similarly when they allow one or more homers with a 38-50 record.