Runs may be hard to come by in this one as Chris Archer (12-13, 3.26 ERA) and the Tampa Bay Rays (78-82) meet Marco Estrada (13-8, 3.15 ERA) and the Toronto Blue Jays (93-67) in the second of a three-game series at Tropicana Field. The Blue Jays won the last game 8-4 and Toronto leads the series 1-0. The game gets underway at 6:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, Oct. 3 and will air on SUN and RSN.
In his most recent outing, Archer pitched 3.2 innings, giving up nine runs, striking out three and walking five in a 10-8 loss to the Blue Jays. The Blue Jays were unsuccessful the last time Estrada pitched. He tossed 7.1 innings, allowing three runs, striking out two and walking one in a 4-3 loss to the Orioles. Josh Donaldson (.301, 122 Rs, 41 HRs, 123 RBIs, 6 SBs) has been doing well offensively for the Blue Jays, going 2 for 5 yesterday.
Tampa Bay, a -121 favorite, will look to capitalize at home against Toronto. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is seven runs. When playing as the favorite, the Rays have a 38-37 record and overall money line at -757. They have SU record of 6-4 and are unbeaten as the favorite (2-0) over their last 10 games. An area where the Rays are particularly strong at home is striking batters out, where they average an AL-best 8.9 K's per home game.
Switching gears, the Blue Jays come into this game with a win percentage of .404 when playing as the underdog (21-31) and an overall money line of +1,230. Against fellow AL East members, they are 42-32 SU and have played well as the underdog with a 15-14 record. The Blue Jays are the top-ranked scoring offense in the AL when playing on the road, averaging five runs per game so far. The Blue Jays are known for their power, smashing a league-leading 229 home runs. The Blue Jays average 3.5 walks per game, making them the most disciplined team in the AL. Switching gears to Toronto's pitching staff, they have the fifth-lowest ERA in the AL at 3.80. They also allow just 2.5 walks per game, best in the AL.
The Blue Jays have mostly come out on top against the Rays in their previous 17 games this season, earning a 9-8 record. The Rays will take on a right-hander (Estrada) in this game and have a 49-59 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. The right-handed Archer will take the mound against the Blue Jays, who have a 73-53 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner - Tor, O/U - Over
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games.
Toronto is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games on the road.
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay has won 48% (31-34) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Toronto has won 61% (43-28) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Blue Jays are coming into this game after allowing one walk during their last outing. The Rays have a 16-25 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they outhit their opponents, the Rays are 56-25. The Blue Jays have a 76-8 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking first in runs, Toronto has earned 885 this season. Tampa Bay ranks 26th with 628 runs.
Toronto tops the league in walks with 562 this season. Tampa Bay ranks in the bottom half at 20th with 433.
The Rays are 60-46 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Blue Jays are 83-36 when they hit at least one homer.