Runs may be hard to come by in this one as Shelby Miller (5-17, 3.15 ERA) and the Atlanta Braves (65-95) go up against John Lackey (13-9, 2.69 ERA) and the St. Louis Cardinals (100-60) in the second of a three-game series at Turner Field. The Braves won the last game 4-0 and Atlanta leads the series 1-0. The game starts at 7:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, Oct. 3 and will air on FSSO and FSMW.
In his last start, Miller pitched 5.1 innings, allowing five runs (two unearned), striking out two and walking one in a 9-5 loss to the Marlins. The Cardinals were unsuccessful against the Brewers 8-4 the last time Lackey pitched. He went 7.0 innings, allowing one run, striking out seven and walking two. Matt Carpenter (.271, 101 Rs, 28 HRs, 84 RBIs, 4 SBs) has been doing well offensively for the Cardinals, going 2 for 3 yesterday with three runs.
Atlanta is a +123 underdog in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is seven runs. The Braves perform poorly as an underdog with a 47-80 record and have an overall money line of -1,803. They have been very patient at the plate during home games, ranking fifth in the NL with an average of 3.1 walks per game.
Moving on to the opposing team, the Cardinals come into this game with a solid win percentage of .675 when playing as the favorite (83-40) and an overall money line of +2,511. The Cardinals average 3.1 walks per game, making them one of the most disciplined teams in the NL. The Cardinals are a problem for opposing batters, sporting an NL-low 2.91 ERA this season. They also average just 8.4 hits allowed per game, fourth-best in the NL.
This game will feature Lackey (RHP) on the mound against the Braves, who have a 53-74 record when they take on a right-handed starter. The right-handed Miller will take the mound against the Cardinals. Against righty starters this season, they've racked up an impressive 76-42 record.
Predictions: SU Winner - StL, O/U - Under
St. Louis is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of St. Louis's last 9 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing Atlanta.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing on the road against Atlanta.
St. Louis is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Atlanta.
Atlanta is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against St. Louis.
Atlanta won its last game in a shutout, its eighth of the season. St. Louis has been shut out 13 times this season.
When leading after 7 innings, St. Louis is 34-24, while Atlanta is 26-48.
Having scored zero runs in their last game, the Cardinals are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Braves have an 8-0 record in games where opponents scored that many runs.
When they outhit their opponents, the Braves are 44-20. The Cardinals have a 60-17 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 30th, Atlanta is at the bottom of the league in runs, scoring 565 this season. St. Louis ranks near the bottom at 23rd with 647.
Ranking 15th, Atlanta is in the top half of the league in walks, notching 470 this season. St. Louis ranks in the top 10 at seventh with 501.
When the Braves hit at least one home run, they are 38-34. When the Cardinals hit at least one homer, they have a 66-26 record.