Shelby Miller (5-17, 3.15 ERA) and the Atlanta Braves (65-95) square off against John Lackey (13-9, 2.69 ERA) and the St. Louis Cardinals (100-60) in a game that has the potential to be low scoring. This is the second of a three-game series at Turner Field. The Braves won the last game 4-0 and Atlanta leads the series 1-0. Action begins at 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, Oct. 4 and can be seen on FSSO and FSMW.
Miller pitched 5.1 innings in his last outing, surrendering seven runs (two unearned), striking out two and walking one in a 9-5 defeat to the Marlins. Lackey went 7.0 innings, surrendering one run, striking out seven and walking two in an 8-4 defeat to the Brewers in his most recent start. Matt Carpenter (.271, 101 Rs, 28 HRs, 84 RBIs, 4 SBs) has been successful at the plate for the Cardinals, going 2 for 3 Friday with three runs.
St. Louis takes on Atlanta as a -136 favorite. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is sitting at seven runs. The Braves have recorded an overall money line of -1,803 and have shown a weak performance as an underdog this season with a record of 47-80. Atlanta is one of the best in the NL in terms of walks at home, earning an average of 3.1 per game.
As for their opponent, St. Louis is coming in with an overall money line of +2,511 and an impressive record of 83-40 as the favorite. St. Louis is excellent at drawing walks with 3.1 per game, ranking fourth in the NL. St. Louis's pitching staff has set the standard for its league, with an NL-low 2.91 ERA. When it comes to preventing batters from getting hits, the Cardinals are fourth in the NL with an average of 8.4 hits allowed per game.
The Braves have a 53-74 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when Lackey takes the mound. Miller (RHP) will be on the hill against the Cardinals, who have a very good 76-42 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - StL, O/U - Under
After last game's shutout win against the St. Louis, the Braves now have eight shutouts this season. The Cardinals have been shut out in 13 games this season.
Atlanta has won 35% (26-48) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, St. Louis has won 59% (34-24) of its games when taking a late lead.
Having scored zero runs in their last game, the Cardinals are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Braves have an 8-0 record in games where opponents scored that many runs.
When they outhit their opponents, the Braves are 44-20. The Cardinals have a 60-17 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 30th, Atlanta is at the bottom of the league in runs, scoring 565 this season. St. Louis ranks near the bottom at 23rd with 647.
Ranking 15th, Atlanta is in the top half of the league in walks, notching 470 this season. St. Louis ranks in the top 10 at seventh with 501.
The Braves are 38-34 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Cardinals are 66-26 when they hit at least one homer.