The Philadelphia Phillies (62-99) finish up the regular season against the Miami Marlins (71-90) as David Buchanan (2-9, 7.54 ERA) and Adam Conley (4-1, 3.84 ERA) will take the mound at Citizens Bank Park. The Marlins won the last game 5-2 and Miami leads the series 2-0. Action begins at 3:05 p.m. ET on Sunday, Oct. 4 and can be seen on FSFL and CSPh.
Buchanan pitched 4.2 innings in his last outing, surrendering one run, striking out three and walking two in a 4-3 defeat to the Mets. Ryan Howard (.229, 53 Rs, 23 HRs, 77 RBIs) went 1 for 3 yesterday with one run, one home run, and one RBI. Conley went 6.0 innings, surrendering two runs, striking out five and walking two in a 4-2 defeat to the Rays in his most recent start. Christian Yelich (.302, 63 Rs, 7 HRs, 44 RBIs, 16 SBs) has been successful at the plate, going 3 for 4 yesterday with two runs and one RBI.
Miami takes on Philadelphia as a -122 favorite. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is sitting at eight runs. The Phillies have recorded an overall money line of -723 and have shown a weak performance as an underdog this season with a record of 55-89. Philadelphia has had a discouraging season against division opponents, earning records of 24-41 and 29-44 as the underdog and SU respectively. Philadelphia's pitching staff has been doing better against opposing offenses during the last 10 games, only allowing an average of 2.6 runs per game, well under their season average of 5.0.
In games where it is the favorite, Miami has a 29-30 record and an overall money line of -1,423. They are 15-17 as the favorite against NL East rivals, and 33-40 SU. The Marlins are tough outs for opponents, ranking fifth in the NL with 8.7 hits per game. The Marlins are an excellent base stealing team with 112 stolen bases, ranking fourth in the MLB. The Marlins allow 4.2 runs per game, but have damaged those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 5.4 runs per game during that span.
The Phillies have a 15-21 record against left-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when Conley takes the mound. Buchanan (RHP) will be on the hill against the Marlins, who have a 56-71 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - Mia, O/U - Over
The Phillies currently sit below .500 against the NL East Division at 29-46, and the Marlins have a 35-40 record.
The Phillies are coming off of a weak pitching game where they recorded four strikeouts. The Marlins have a record of 17-12 when opponents' pitchers have that many strikeouts or fewer.
It looks like the Marlins have a slight leg up on the Phillies, as the Marlins have won their last two games while the Phillies have lost their last two.
When they outhit their opponents, the Marlins are 52-22. The Phillies have a 38-16 record when outhitting opponents.
Philadelphia and Miami both rank near the bottom of the league in runs. Philadelphia sits at 28th with 619 runs this season and Miami ranks 29th with 611.
Ranking 30th, Miami is at the bottom of the league in walks, notching 374 this season. Philadelphia ranks near the bottom at 28th with 382.
The Phillies are 43-46 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Marlins are 44-42 when they hit at least one homer.