Martin Perez (3-6, 4.46 ERA) and the Texas Rangers go up against Marco Estrada (13-8, 3.13 ERA) and the Toronto Blue Jays in Game 3 of the Divisional Playoffs at Globe Life Park in Arlington. The Rangers won the last game 6-4, and Texas leads the series 2-0. The game starts at 8:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, Oct. 11 and will air on FS1.
In his last start, Perez pitched 7.0 innings, allowing one run, striking out four and walking one in a 2-1 loss to the Angels. Rougned Odor (.261, 59 Rs, 17 HRs, 62 RBIs, 6 SBs) went 1 for 5 Friday with two runs. The Blue Jays were unsuccessful against the Rays 4-3 the last time Estrada pitched. He went 6.2 innings, allowing two runs and striking out nine. Josh Donaldson (.295, 123 Rs, 42 HRs, 124 RBIs, 6 SBs) went 1 for 6 Friday with one run, one home run, and one RBI.
Texas, a +113 underdog, will look to capitalize at home against Toronto. The teams combine to set the Over/Under (O/U) at nine runs. The Rangers are 59-55 as the underdog and have an overall money line of +2,979. The Rangers have one of the most prolific home offenses in the entire AL, averaging 5.0 runs per game.
Switching to the opposing dugout, the Blue Jays come into this game with a solid win percentage of .661 when playing as the favorite (72-37) and an overall money line of +979. Over the past 10 matchups, the team is 6-4 SU and has played well as the favorite with a 5-1 record. The Blue Jays are the number one overall scoring offense in the AL, averaging 5.5 runs per game so far. Toronto is one of the top hitting teams in the AL with an average of 9.1 hits per contest. The Blue Jays average 3.5 walks per game, making them the most disciplined team in the AL. Toronto's pitching staff has allowed an average of 5.4 runs per game during the last 10 games, higher than their season average of 4.1.
The Rangers will take on a right-hander (Estrada) in this game and have a 54-44 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. Taking the hill against the Blue Jays will be the left-hander Perez. They sport a 20-15 record against southpaws.
Predictions: SU Winner - TOR, O/U - Over
Texas has won 49% (36-37) of its games when leading after seven innings. However, Toronto has won 59% (43-30) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Blue Jays managed to give up four walks in their last game. They'll have to pick it up against the Rangers who are heading in with a 40-20 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Blue Jays are 13-56. The Rangers have a 20-57 record when opponents outhit them.
Texas ranks in the top half of the league at 11th when it comes to home runs, hitting 174 this season. Toronto ranks in the top five at second with 234.
Texas and Toronto both rank in the top five of the league in hits. Texas sits at fifth with 8.75 hits per game and Toronto ranks fourth with 9.12.
Toronto tops the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage of .796 this season. Texas ranks in the top 10 at ninth with an OPS of .739.
When the Blue Jays allow at least one home run, they are 55-51. When the Rangers allow one or more homers, they have a 47-56 record.