Jake Arrieta (23-6, 1.70 ERA) and the Chicago Cubs go up against Michael Wacha (17-7, 3.38 ERA) and the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 3 of the Divisional Playoffs at Wrigley Field. The Cubs won the last game 6-3, and the series is currently tied 1-1. The game gets underway at 6:07 p.m. ET on Monday, Oct. 12 and will air on TBS.
In Game 1 of the Wild Card Elimination Game, Arrieta pitched 9.0 innings, giving up zero runs and striking out 11 in a 4-0 victory over the Pirates. The Cardinals were unsuccessful against the Pirates 8-2 the last time Wacha pitched. He went 4.0 innings, allowing six runs, striking out four and walking four. Matt Carpenter (.270, 103 Rs, 29 HRs, 85 RBIs, 4 SBs) went 1 for 4 Saturday with one run, one home run, and one RBI.
Chicago is a heavy -245 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is currently unavailable. The Cubs perform well as a favorite with a 72-38 record and have an overall money line of +1,757. They are 8-1 as the favorite over their last 10 games. The Cubs typically don't swing at bad pitches, which has led to an NL-high 3.5 walks per game. As for the Chicago defense and pitching staff, teams routinely struggle to score runs against the Cubs, who allow only 3.8 runs per game. The Cubs don't allow many hitters to get on base, leading the league with a 1.144 WHIP. An area where the Cubs are particularly strong is striking batters out, where they average an NL-best 8.8 K's per game.
On the other side, the Cardinals have a record of 17-20 when they are the underdog and are +2,228 overall with the money line. Against divisional foes, they are 46-30 SU and 9-10 as the underdog. The Cardinals pitchers are a problem for opposing batters, sporting an NL-low 2.93 ERA this season. They also average just 8.4 hits allowed per game, fifth-best in the NL. They also have some of the most overpowering arms in the NL with an average of 8.2 strikeouts per road game.
The Cardinals have mostly come out on top against the Cubs in their previous 21 games this season, earning a 12-9 record. The Cubs will take on a right-hander (Wacha) in this game and have a 78-51 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. The right-handed Arrieta will take the mound against the Cardinals. Against righty starters this season, they've racked up an impressive 76-44 record.
Predictions: SU Winner - CHC
The Cubs sit at 48-31 against their division, while the Cardinals are 47-31
St. Louis has won 57% (34-26) of its games when leading after seven innings. However, Chicago has won 59% (38-26) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Cardinals managed to give up four walks in their last game. They'll have to pick it up against the Cubs who are heading in with a 53-18 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they outhit their opponents, the Cardinals are 61-17. The Cubs have a 68-9 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 23rd, St. Louis sits near the bottom of the league in runs, scoring 654 this season. Chicago ranks in the top half at 11th with 699.
Chicago ranks at the top of the league when it comes to walks with 575 this season. St. Louis ranks in the top 10 at eighth with 507.
The Cubs are 70-28 when they hit at least one home run. The Cardinals perform similarly when they hit one or more homers with a 67-27 record.