It’s almost that time, ladies and gentlemen. I feel confident in my ability to have you prepared for the Major League Baseball season with my annual season win total analyses. For the last two years, right here at BangTheBook, I have written over 2,000 words per team to create in-depth analysis that you won’t find anywhere else. The returns have been solid so far. Last season’s picks went 17-12-1 and the 2014 set of season win totals came in at 17-13. Some have been major misses. Some have been big wins. Others have fallen right on or close to the number and have been winners or losers by half a win.
What I can promise you is that I will give the same level of attention to the Cleveland Indians (my favorite team) as I will to the Detroit Tigers (hate them), the Colorado Rockies, the Pittsburgh Pirates, and everybody in between. My previews do include a lot of sabermetric concepts, which I attempt to explain on the fly, because I find that they are the best way to quantify past, present, and future performance. I encourage every reader with a question to reach out to me on Twitter, @SkatingTripods.
These are a labor of love for me. Baseball is my favorite sport and I have immersed myself in sabermetrics and the advanced stats community for the last several years. I wanted to find out why my favorite team operated in the manner that it does and it opened my eyes to a world that is beyond comprehension for some. That’s why I do my best to properly explain the concepts and establish their value to handicappers.
Be advised that it is in your best interest to shop around for the best number. In my write-ups, I will do what I can to take a consensus number, when available, but a full win, a half win, or something even bigger is extremely significant, even in a 162-game sample size. Atlantis Sportsbook in Reno, Nevada often gets the market underway in mid-February and Las Vegas shops will then follow suit. After that, the offshore market will get involved. Numbers in the write-ups will not change. What I see when I post is what the number will stay. For those wondering if a pick is still good based on an adjusted number, reach out on Twitter. I grade based on the numbers at time of posting.
In these previews, I make a case for betting the over and I make a case for betting the under. The end of the write-up will have my pick and a brief final explanation, but the body of the preview will cover the batters, the pitchers, the intangibles, and other things that I believe can help in your handicapping process. Every team will be formatted in this manner, including a recap of offseason transactions and the value that those may have.
My posting order is generally done by division, beginning with the American League East and ending with the National League West. The goal is to post one entire division per day, but we’ll see how that goes. Last season, these began on February 16, but we’ll see if the market dictates an earlier opening. In most cases, I try to wait until offshore sportsbooks have numbers that are readily available, since most of our readers do not reside in Nevada and therefore have no access to the Atlantis or Superbook numbers.
Please let me know of any discrepancies or omissions. With 30 teams, a fairly tight timeframe, and the depth of the analysis, it is rather easy to overlook a very important element, an offseason acquisition, or something like that. Feel free to disagree as well. Hopefully I can get over the hump of that 17 number this year and turn a bigger profit for our readers. I will make it clear which plays I like more than others, though I have not added things like that to the grading. The current grading is simple wins and losses, since there are so many variations of juice on these numbers. Every team will have a pick, whether or not I find that there is value in the line. Some will, obviously, have more value than others and I usually express that.
Bookmark this page, as it will be updated as each team’s season win total analysis is posted.
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants