New Hampshire Motor Speedway will be the site of the 22nd race of the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season. The Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 on The Magic Mile in Loudon, NH is this Sunday’s race and it will be a really important race for drivers looking to secure some additional bonus points.
After this weekend, two of the last four races will be on road courses. NASCAR will take a break next weekend before a jampacked August schedule that features stops at Watkins Glen and Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
We’ll use the odds at BetOnline Sportsbook to see where things stand for this weekend and try to pick the winner in Loudon.
BETTING ODDS FOR THE FOXWOODS CASINO RESORT 301
|Martin Truex Jr.||+500|
|Ricky Stenhouse Jr.||+15000|
Kyle Larson and Martin Truex Jr. are the +500 co-favorites this week as we have six drivers with short prices. Larson and Truex lead the pack, which also includes Denny Hamlin at +550, Kyle Busch at +600, Brad Keselowski at +750, and Chase Elliott at +800.
Hamlin has not won a race yet this season. Larson won three in a row at Charlotte, Sonoma, and Nashville to go with his win much earlier this season in Las Vegas. Truex has three wins, but hasn’t won in his last nine races and only has two top-five finishes in that span.
Kyle Busch has finished third or better in five of seven races and it sure feels like his team has figured it all out. Keselowski is a surprising fifth choice on the betting board, given one win and five other top-five finishes, but that speaks to his success in New Hampshire.
The Magic Mile
The Magic Mile is actually 1.058 miles in Loudon. The asphalt track is extremely flat, with low-banked corners and basically flat straightaways. Getting speed out of the corners is tricky here and we did see 11 cautions in last year’s race and the drivers tried to jockey for position on the proper racing line.
With the flatness of the track, we also get some wide racing in this event. To some degree, it has some road course elements in that regard.
New Hampshire Motor Speedway used to be a twice-a-year stop for the Cup Series, but the playoff race went to Las Vegas a couple of years ago.
There are a lot of past results here and those do skew the numbers to a small degree. Kevin Harvick has 37 starts here, the same number as Kurt Busch, who won last week’s race at Atlanta. Harvick’s 13 top-five finishes lead the pack and so do his four wins. He does have the most data points here, but three of those four wins have come in the last 10 years.
Denny Hamlin has 11 top-five finishes in 27 starts and he has the highest average finish here at 9.6. Hamlin is also a three-time winner at this track.
Kyle and Kurt Busch also have three wins. So does Ryan Newman, but he has been a non-factor this season. Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano each have a pair of wins.
Recent Loudon Leaders
As mentioned, three of Harvick’s four wins have come within the last 10 years here. His 370 points are second to Martin Truex Jr., even though Truex has never won here in 27 tries. Truex has finished on the lead lap in each of his last 10 races at NHMS, something that no other driver has done. Harvick has eight top-five finishes to just four for Truex in that span, but Truex has averaged a top-eight finish by being on track more often.
Joey Logano has a win and five top-five finishes in the last 10 years on this track. We haven’t heard much from Logano lately, who won the dirt race at Bristol, as he’s finished 10th or worse in each of the last five events.
Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 Picks
It isn’t sexy at all, but Kyle Larson and Martin Truex Jr. have been the clear-cut best drivers on the short and intermediate tracks this season. Larson was fifth at Martinsville, second at Dover, and won at Nashville. Truex won at Martinsville, Phoenix, and Darlington.
The co-favorites at +500 are both worthy of a bet. If you wanted to look at a long shot in a race that could be marred by cautions, Tyler Reddick now has 10 top-10 finishes since the first Atlanta race. He is +6600 this week.