FL1 Match of the Day Round 32 – Lille vs. PSG (4/14/19)


Three points will secure the eighth league title to the Parisians but the Great Danes will be looking to spoil PSG’s party at home. The game between Lille and PSG will take place at Stade Pierre-Mauroy on April 14th, 2019.

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Three-Way: 1: Lille +333; X: +275 Draw; 2: PSG -125 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread +0.5: Lille +108; PSG -133

Total 3 goals: Over +112; Under -139


The hosts will do everything they can to stop PSG’s celebration from happening on their own patch, and with just two defeats at home this L1 season (W9, D4, L2), they have the ability to stop the Parisians’ party. In fact, Lille conceded just 0.67 goals on average per home league fixture this term, L1’s second-lowest average.

Yet despite that, both teams have scored in nearly half (46.67%) of their L1 home matches this season, although Lille is yet to concede in both halves in any top-flight home game. That statistic could remain secure considering PSG have scored in both halves on just one occasion in their last five competitive visits to Lille, although they did win the last four H2Hs here to nil.

The Great Danes failed to get three points in their latest L1 duel with Reims on the road as Remi Oudin canceled out Jose Fonte’s opener to make it 1-1.

Christophe Galtier is happy to have all of the players healthy and at his disposal as no new injuries occurred in the last few days and weeks.

Betting Trends:

  • Nicolas Pépé has 18 league goals so far – a third were netted after the 75th minute
  • Lille has been drawing at half-time in 66.67% of their home league matches so far (HT: W5, D10)


PSG’s slip-up at home to Strasbourg last time out (2-2), which saw the Parisians concede over 1.5 first-half goals for the first time this league campaign, means they now travel to second-placed Lille knowing victory will secure their eighth Ligue 1 (L1) title.

L1’s best away team aren’t unbeatable on the road, but they’re close (W11, D2, L1), with PSG’s average of 2.43 goals scored per road trip the division’s best by some distance. With that being the case, it’s no wonder they’ve scored in both halves in a league-high 42.86% of their away league games.

The Parisians’ four-game winning run came to an end as they drew with Strasbourg at home, 2-2, despite having a 1-0 lead through Maxim Choupo-Moting in the 13th minute. The visitors answered with goals from Joia Nuno Da Costa and Anthony Goncalves in the first half but Timo Kehrer equalized in the 82nd minute to set the final score.

Thomas Tuchel cannot count on Neymar who is still recovering from his ankle injury and it’s a question whether he will return this season, while Edinson Cavani (hip), Angel Di Maria (thigh), and Thomas Meunier (knee) are listed as doubtful to face Lille.

Betting Trends:

  • L1 top scorer Kylian Mbappé has seen 23 of his 27 goals arrive after half-time
  • Both teams have scored in half of PSG’s top-flight away games

PSG won nine out of the previous ten H2H encounters (D1) including the last seven, while the Saints were victorious in the past four meetings at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy. It is clear that PSG is dominant in this fixture but they will likely be without some key attacking players and although they are a better team, I am going with a draw here because Lille will do anything to prevent the visitors from clinching the title on their own soil.

MY PICK: Draw (+275)

ADDITIONAL PICK: There have been eight goals netted after the 80th minute across the last five H2H meetings and the teams produced three or more goals in each of the previous five duels. However, only one of the last five clashes at Lille produced more than two goals and that’s why I am going with under.

MY PICK: Under 3 (-139)

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