FL1 Match of the Day Round 30 – Rennes vs. Lyon (3/29/19)

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The Red and Blacks have a game in hand and they will be looking to get three points here which would take them back into contention for the Europa League football next year, while the Kids are in a good position to secure the Champions League next term and would be satisfied with a point. The game between Rennes and Lyon will take place at Roazhon Park on March 29th, 2019.

RENNES vs. LYON

Three-Way: 1: Rennes +229; X: +250 Draw; 2: Lyon +114 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread +0.5: Rennes -139; Lyon +106

Total 2.5 goals: Over -137; Under +100

RENNES

Rennes’ last Ligue 1 home match saw them extend their unbeaten home record into a seventh league game (W5, D2). In superb defensive form, they have also recorded a clean sheet in half of their 14 top-flight home matches this season – the division’s joint-third best ratio.

Additionally, the hosts can take confidence from the fact they are unbeaten in nearly two-thirds of the 47 previous L1 home meetings with Lyon (W21, D10, L16). That, coupled with the fact Rennes conceded first in just two of their 14 home league games this season, appears to set them up well in this encounter. However, they have conceded the opener in five of the last six top-flight H2Hs held here.

After a brave display in the first leg of the Europa League 1/8 finals against Arsenal and a 3-1 win, the Red and Blacks fell to a 3-0 defeat in the returning leg and now they can switch focus to the Ligue 1 and French Cup, where they reached semi-finals. They drew the latest L1 clash with Bordeaux on the road as M’Baye Niang salvaged a point in injury time following Francois Kamano’s opener in the 59th minute.

Julien Stephan will be without Ludovic Baal (muscle), Romain Danze (knee), and Theoson Siebatcheu (thigh), who are all injured, while Ramy Bensebaini, Benjamin Bourigeaud, and Hamari Traore are all suspended for this clash.

Betting Trends:

  • Rennes’ attacking midfielder Hatem Ben Arfa scored in the reverse fixture and has five L1 goals so far
  • Rennes found the net in 19 of their last 21 L1 home fixtures
  • Rennes kept a clean sheet in six of their seven L1 home victories this term

LYON

Lyon travel here after losing just three of their last 20 top-flight fixtures (W11, D6, L3), although on the road they have been vulnerable at the back in recent times, and therefore have registered just two clean sheets across their last 16 L1 away games.

Scoring first in this game could be vital to Lyon’s chances – that’s because they are unbeaten in the six L1 away games that they grabbed the match opener (W3, D3). They’ve also netted an average of 1.50 goals per L1 away outing this term, the division’s third-highest average.

The Kids suffered a heavy 5-1 defeat to Barcelona in the returning leg of the Champions League 1/8 finals but they bounced back with a 3-2 home victory over Montpellier. Martin Terrier opened the scoring in the 12th minute before Florent Mollet equalized in the 36th minute but Moussa Dembele and Houssem Aouar scored for the hosts and the visitors managed only to soften the defeat through Souleymane Camara in injury time.

Bruno Genesio cannot count on Kenny Tete who is out with a thigh injury, while Anthony Lopes (concussion) and Fernando Marcal (muscle) are listed as doubtful to face Rennes.

Betting Trends:

  • Lyon’s top scorer Moussa Dembélé has 12 league goals – seven of which were netted on the road
  • Lyon failed to score in only four of their previous 30 L1 away games

Rennes won four of the previous ten H2H encounters (D2, L4) including the last two, while the Kids are unbeaten in the past four meetings at the Roazhon Park. The visiting team in this fixture had more success in the recent years but Lyon is without a road victory in the last four games, while Rennes is playing very well in front of their own fans, and I am backing the hosts to cover the +0.5 spread and avoid a defeat here.

MY PICK: AH Rennes +0.5 (-139)

ADDITIONAL PICK: Only three of the previous 14 H2H duels produced three or more goals and although I don’t expect to see a bunch of goals here, I am backing each side to score at least once. Still, the -164 odds for both teams to score are not attractive, so I am going with BTTS and over 2.5 goals at +100.

MY PICK: BTTS and Over 2.5 (+100)