FL1 Match of the Day Round 23 – Lyon vs. PSG (2/3/19)

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Unbeaten in their last six Ligue 1 matches (W3, D3), Lyon now face their toughest test of the new year as they welcome runaway leaders PSG. The game between Lyon and PSG will take place at the ParcOlympique Lyonnais on February 3rd, 2019.

LYON vs. PSG

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Three-Way: 1: Lyon +320; X: +300 Draw; 2: PSG -125 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread +0.5: Lyon +100; PSG -110

Total 3.5 goals: Over +100; Under -120

LYON

Lyon has been unpredictable at home of late, winning just one of their last five matches (W1, D2, L2 – in all competitions). However, they have been regular scorers, finding the net in all but two of their top-flight home fixtures so far (W6, D3, L2).

In fact, the hosts have opened the scoring in eight (72.73%) of their L1 home games and consequently have been losing at half-time here just twice this league campaign (HT: W6, D3, L2). The Kids progressed to the 1/8 finals of Coupe de France after defeating Amiens on the road, 2-0, while they secured the third straight victory after a 1-0 road win at Amiens, but this time in the Ligue 1.

Jason Denayer was the scored of the game’s only goal in the 50th minute and those three points helped Lyon to stay in the 3rd position in the league with 40 points, 16 behind the leaders PSG and six behind the second-placed Lille.

Bruno Genesio cannot count on Rafael who is suffering from a groin injury, while Kenny Tete (illness) is listed as questionable to face PSG on Sunday.

Betting Trends:

  • In-form Moussa Dembele has scored in three of his last four matches for Lyon
  • There’s been a penalty or a red card in three of Lyon’s last four competitive games

PSG

PSG grabbed the opener in six of their L1 away fixtures this term (66.67%), and have also been losing at the break just twice (HT: W4, D3, L2). However, PSG remains unbeaten in the league (W18, D2), and have won seven of their nine away matches so far (W7, D2). Their average of 2.78 goals scored per L1 away outing is, unsurprisingly, the highest in the division by some way – the league average is a meager 1.12. Meanwhile, at the other end, no team has conceded fewer goals than the Parisians’ seven on the road.

After suffering a shocking home defeat to Guingamp in Coupe de la Ligue, the Parisians connected four victories, scoring 16 and conceding just one goal in the process. The latest win came in the league over Rennes when PSG beat them at home, 4-1.

Edinson Cavani opened the scoring in the 7th minute and M’Baye Niang equalized in the 28th but the hosts scored three goals in the space of 11 minutes in the second half as Angel Di Maria, Kylian Mbappe, and Cavani all found the net between the 50th and 61st minute.

Thomas Tuchel will be without Neymar who will miss eight to ten weeks due to the latest ankle injury and not only that he’ll skip this duel, the Brazilian will also be sidelined for the Champions League clashes with Manchester United. Marco Verratti is doubtful with an ankle injury and he will probably sit this one out.

Betting Trends:

  • L1 top scorer and PSG starlet KylianMbappe (18 goals, five assists) has netted six goals in his last four league matches
  • PSG netted 72% of their away goals during the second half, with 32% scored in the final 15 minutes

PSG won eight out of the previous ten H2H encounters (L2) including five out of the last six, while the Kids were victorious in two of the past three meetings at the ParcOlympique Lyonnais. Lyon has a way better record against PSG at home comparing it to the road matches and even though they recorded just three wins in the last ten games in front of their own fans in all competitions, I am backing them not to lose this one, and I am going with a draw.

MY PICK: Draw (+300)

ADDITIONAL PICK: The last five competitive H2Hs held here saw both teams score. Four of those ended 2-1 either way. Although the -150 odds are not quite attractive, I am pretty sure this game will produce at least three goals and goals on both ends, and I am going with BTTS and over 2.5 goals.

MY PICK: BTTS and Over 2.5 (-150)