Week 5 proved to be a pretty good weekend for us. While only one of our upset picks actually won, that was Florida winning at Mississippi State, two others beat the spread. Iowa State (+10.5) lost by just three and Temple (+14.0) lost by just 10 to Boston College. If you would have gone with these two bets you would have been a winner.
This week we don’t shy away from any big games, including the Red River Rivalry between Texas and Oklahoma. We see an upset in the works there as well as other top teams finding themselves in a little trouble this week.
Iowa State vs. No. 25 Oklahoma State (-10)
The Cyclones may only be 1-3, but they have proven themselves to be quite a formidable opponent this season, losing by 10 to Iowa, losing by 10 to Oklahoma, and losing by three to TCU. Many oddsmakers have simply not taken this team seriously, and that’s a mistake. Iowa State is 6-1-1 against the spread in their last eight games on the road and they are 18-7-1 against the spread in their last 26 conference games.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma State has not been impressive themselves. Their one loss came to Texas Tech by 24, with their only big victory being over Boise State three weeks ago. They only time they lost this season was when they couldn’t produce at least 44 points, and they’re not getting that total this weekend either. That makes choosing the Cyclones a good choice.
Our Pick: Take Iowa State to Win.
No. 13 Kentucky vs. Texas A&M (-5.5)
A team that is getting no respect is the No. 13 Kentucky Wildcats. Kentucky has beaten top-notch talent this season, including an 11 point victory over Florida, a 21 point victory over Mississippi State, and a 14 point victory over South Carolina last weekend.
Now they travel to Texas A&M whose only two losses came in a two-point loss to Clemson, the No. 2 team in the country, and a 22 point loss to Alabama, the No. 1 team in college football. This is a good Aggies team, but they have not proven that they can beat a nationally ranked opponent.
Kentucky is 4-0 against the spread against teams with a winning record in their last four contests. They have a big-time running back in Benny Snell and are just the kind of team that can pull off a big upset here.
Our Pick: Take Kentucky to Win.
San Diego State vs. Boise State (-14)
The Aztecs are coming off of a bye, which has given them an extra week to prepare for this contest. They did lose running back Juwan Washington but have Chase Jasmin available and he has averaged better than 100 yards in each of the last two games.
We like the fact that the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams and that San Diego State is 4-1 ATS in the last five. Look for them to make that five out of six.
Our Pick: Take the Aztecs to Win.
No. 19 Texas vs. No. 7 Oklahoma (-7.5)
Two weeks into the season everyone would’ve laughed at you if you would’ve proposed that Texas could beat Oklahoma in this contest. A loss to Maryland and a less than stellar victory over Tulsa brought about a lot of skepticism. However, Texas has beaten both USC and TCU since, putting them at the No. 19 ranking in the country. Those victories have helped to greatly raise the odds that Texas could be a playoff team come January and this victory would all but solidify that possibility.
The Longhorns have a lot going for them right now, as quarterback Sam Ehlinger has been sensational, throwing for 1185 yards and nine touchdowns. Most importantly, he has been intercepted just twice and suffered just eight sacks. He’s a difference maker, and could be the big reason why Texas pulls off the upset.
Oklahoma has won the last two contests in the series, but not by much, winning in 2016 45-40, and winning last year, 29-24. Those were against Texas teams that weren’t very good when Oklahoma was a serious national contender. Texas has won two of the last five in the series, both times when Oklahoma was ranked and Texas was not. Now that the Longhorns are, we take them extremely serious and expect them to win.
Our Pick: Texas Wins
Nebraska vs. No. 16 Wisconsin (-18.0)
This is just the kind of trap game where Nebraska could pull off a huge upset. Wisconsin lost three weeks ago to BYU and handhold off Iowa two weeks ago, winning by 11. Nebraska has lost all four of their games this season, and new head coach Scott Frost has been struggling to try to find some kind of hook to get his team rolling.
This is the kind of contest that could put him on the map, proving that the Cornhuskers were smart to invest in their new head coach. Adrian Martinez is a dynamic quarterback, who could be a big difference maker in this game, who has thrown for over 500 yards and ran for nearly 300. It’s all going to depend on how well they can shut down the Wisconsin running game, but we believe that it will happen here. The Badgers are 0-4 against the spread in their last four home games.
Our Pick: Take Nebraska in the Big Upset.